Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27876006›Full record

Observational studyBMC medical research methodology2016

Predictors of in-hospital mortality following major lower extremity amputations in type 2 diabetic patients using artificial neural networks.

Ana Lopez-de-Andres, Valentin Hernandez-Barrera, Roberto Lopez, Pablo Martin-Junco, Isabel Jimenez-Trujillo, Alejandro Alvaro-Meca, Miguel Angel Salinero-Fort, Rodrigo Jimenez-Garcia

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMC medical research methodology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Pooled it
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  5. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Ana Lopez-de-AndresPreventive Medicine and Public Health Teaching and Research Unit, Health Sciences Faculty, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avda. de Atenas s/n, 28922, Alcorcón, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain. ana.lopez@urjc.es.
Valentin Hernandez-BarreraPreventive Medicine and Public Health Teaching and Research Unit, Health Sciences Faculty, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avda. de Atenas s/n, 28922, Alcorcón, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain.
Roberto LopezResearch & Development Department, Artelnics, Spain.
Pablo Martin-JuncoResearch & Development Department, Artelnics, Spain.
Isabel Jimenez-TrujilloPreventive Medicine and Public Health Teaching and Research Unit, Health Sciences Faculty, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avda. de Atenas s/n, 28922, Alcorcón, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain.
Alejandro Alvaro-MecaPreventive Medicine and Public Health Teaching and Research Unit, Health Sciences Faculty, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avda. de Atenas s/n, 28922, Alcorcón, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain.
Miguel Angel Salinero-FortDirección Técnica de Docencia e Investigación, Gerencia Atención Primaria, Madrid, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain.
Rodrigo Jimenez-GarciaPreventive Medicine and Public Health Teaching and Research Unit, Health Sciences Faculty, Rey Juan Carlos University, Avda. de Atenas s/n, 28922, Alcorcón, Comunidad de Madrid, Spain.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundOutcome prediction is important in the clinical decision-making process. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been used to predict the risk of post-operative events, including survival, and are increasingly being used in complex medical decision making. We aimed to use ANN analysis to estimate predictive factors of in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) after major lower extremity amputation (LEA) in Spain.

methodsWe design a retrospective, observational study using ANN models. We used the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database to select all hospital admissions of major LEA procedure in T2DM patients.

main outcome measuresPredictors of IHM using 4 ANN models: i) with all discharge diagnosis included in the database; ii) with all discharge diagnosis included in the database, excluding infectious diseases; iii) comorbidities included in the Charlson Comorbidities Index; iv) comorbidities included in the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index.

resultsFrom 2003 to 2013, 40,857 major LEAs in patients with T2DM were identified with a 10.0% IHM. We found that Elixhauser Comorbidity Index model performed better in terms of sensitivity, specificity and precision than Charlson Comorbidity Index model (0.7634 vs 0.7444; 0.9602 vs 0.9121; 0.9511 vs 0.888, respectively). The area under the ROC curve for Elixhauser comorbidity model was 91.7% (95% CI 90.3-93.0) and for Charlson comorbidity model was 88.9% (95% CI; 87.590.2) p = 0.043. Models including all discharge diagnosis with and without infectious diseases showed worse results. In the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index model the most sensitive parameter was age (variable sensitive ratio [VSR] 1.451) followed by female sex (VSR 1.433), congestive heart failure (VSR 1.341), renal failure (VSR 1.274) and chronic pulmonary disease (VSR 1.266).

conclusionsElixhauser Comorbidity Index is a superior comorbidity risk-adjustment model for major LEA survival prediction in patients with T2DM than Charlson Comorbidity Index model using ANN models. Female sex, congestive heart failure, and renal failure are strong predictors of mortality in these patients.

Indexed as

Hospital MortalityNeural Networks, ComputerAgedAged, 80 and overAmputation, SurgicalComorbidityDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHumansLower ExtremityMaleMiddle AgedMultivariate AnalysisOutcome Assessment, Health CarePatient DischargePrevalenceArtificial neural networksCharlson Comorbidity IndexElixhauser Comorbidity IndexIn-hospital mortalityMajor lower extremity amputationType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID27876006
PMCPMC5120563

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.