ArticleEpidemiology and infection2017
Risk assessment of dengue fever in Zhongshan, China: a time-series regression tree analysis.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of published literature on mosquito control action thresholds across the world.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Temporal and Spatiotemporal Arboviruses Forecasting by Machine Learning: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management.Biology · 2022Review
- Epidemiology of Indigenous Dengue Cases in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Interaction of climate and socio-ecological environment drives the dengue outbreak in epidemic region of China.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- From importation to autochthonous transmission: Drivers of chikungunya and dengue emergence in a temperate area.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue fever (DF) is the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease globally. Control of DF is limited by barriers to vector control and integrated management approaches. This study aimed to explore the potential risk factors for autochthonous DF transmission and to estimate the threshold effects of high-order interactions among risk factors. A time-series regression tree model was applied to estimate the hierarchical relationship between reported autochthonous DF cases and the potential risk factors including the timeliness of DF surveillance systems (median time interval between symptom onset date and diagnosis date, MTIOD), mosquito density, imported cases and meteorological factors in Zhongshan, China from 2001 to 2013. We found that MTIOD was the most influential factor in autochthonous DF transmission. Monthly autochthonous DF incidence rate increased by 36·02-fold [relative risk (RR) 36·02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 25·26-46·78, compared to the average DF incidence rate during the study period] when the 2-month lagged moving average of MTIOD was >4·15 days and the 3-month lagged moving average of the mean Breteau Index (BI) was ⩾16·57. If the 2-month lagged moving average MTIOD was between 1·11 and 4·15 days and the monthly maximum diurnal temperature range at a lag of 1 month was <9·6 °C, the monthly mean autochthonous DF incidence rate increased by 14·67-fold (RR 14·67, 95% CI 8·84-20·51, compared to the average DF incidence rate during the study period). This study demonstrates that the timeliness of DF surveillance systems, mosquito density and diurnal temperature range play critical roles in the autochthonous DF transmission in Zhongshan. Better assessment and prediction of the risk of DF transmission is beneficial for establishing scientific strategies for DF early warning surveillance and control.
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