ArticleScientific reports2016
A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2022Pooled it
- Associations between eating speed and food temperature and type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2023Article
- A Novel Score for Predicting Alzheimer's Disease Risk from Late Life Psychopathological and Health Risk Factors.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Influence of Competing Risks on Estimates of Recurrence Risk and Breast Cancer-specific Mortality in Analyses of the Early Breast Cancer Trialists Collaborative Group.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Cognitive Impairment and Risk of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Over 20-Year Follow-up: Results From the BLSA.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2018Article
- A Risk Algorithm for the Persistence of Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors During College.The Journal of clinical psychiatry · 2017Article
- Risk Score for Detecting Dysglycemia: A Cross-Sectional Study of a Working-Age Population in an Oil Field in China.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2017Article
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17 authors.
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Abstract
Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72-0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69-0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65.
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