Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27837923›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2016

Fractional dosing of yellow fever vaccine to extend supply: a modelling study.

Joseph T Wu, Corey M Peak, Gabriel M Leung, Marc Lipsitch

2 registry-linked trialsAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 2 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 52 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
52citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03430388 nacompletednot on this mapstarted 2018, after this paper: background citation

Evaluation of Yellow Fever Vaccine in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases Under Low Immunosuppression Level and Residing in a Risk Area

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of Sao Paulo General HospitalRan2018 to 2019Enrolled600ConditionsSystemic Lupus, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Spondyloarthritis, Inflammatory MyopathyArmsYellow Fever vaccine (17D)
NCT05374317 phase4completednot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

An Exploratory, Pilot Study of the Safety and Immunogenicity of Reduced Doses of the US Yellow Fever Vaccine

TypeinterventionalSponsorUS Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious DiseasesRan2021 to 2022Enrolled88ConditionsYellow Fever Vaccination ReactionArmsYellow Fever Vaccine
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

52 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Low-Dose Yellow Fever Vaccine in Adults in Africa.The New England journal of medicine · 2025
    Trial
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  7. Review
  8. Mapping climate change-driven epidemics.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025
    Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Joseph T WuWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China. Electronic address: joewu@hku.hk.
Corey M PeakCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Gabriel M LeungWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Marc LipsitchCenter for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.

Funding

Understanding and controlling antibiotic resistanceU54GM088558 · NIGMS · HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI LIPSITCH, MARC · 2009 to 2018
$26.4M
Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases and BiodefenseT32AI007535 · NIAID · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI GRAD, YONATAN H, MURRAY, MEGAN B · 1998 to 2025
$4.8M
NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI007535NIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM088558
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe ongoing yellow fever epidemic in Angola strains the global vaccine supply, prompting WHO to adopt dose sparing for its vaccination campaign in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in July-August, 2016. Although a 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine is similar to standard-dose vaccine in safety and immunogenicity, efficacy is untested. There is an urgent need to ensure the robustness of fractional-dose vaccination by elucidation of the conditions under which dose fractionation would reduce transmission.

methodsWe estimate the effective reproductive number for yellow fever in Angola using disease natural history and case report data. With simple mathematical models of yellow fever transmission, we calculate the infection attack rate (the proportion of population infected over the course of an epidemic) with various levels of transmissibility and 5-fold fractional-dose vaccine efficacy for two vaccination scenarios, ie, random vaccination in a hypothetical population that is completely susceptible, and the Kinshasa vaccination campaign in July-August, 2016, with different age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines.

findingsWe estimate the effective reproductive number early in the Angola outbreak was between 5·2 and 7·1. If vaccine action is all-or-nothing (ie, a proportion of vaccine recipients receive complete protection [VE] and the remainder receive no protection), n-fold fractionation can greatly reduce infection attack rate as long as VE exceeds 1/n. This benefit threshold becomes more stringent if vaccine action is leaky (ie, the susceptibility of each vaccine recipient is reduced by a factor that is equal to the vaccine efficacy). The age cutoff for fractional-dose vaccines chosen by WHO for the Kinshasa vaccination campaign (2 years) provides the largest reduction in infection attack rate if the efficacy of 5-fold fractional-dose vaccines exceeds 20%.

interpretationDose fractionation is an effective strategy for reduction of the infection attack rate that would be robust with a large margin for error in case fractional-dose VE is lower than expected.

fundingNIH-MIDAS, HMRF-Hong Kong.

Indexed as

Dose-Response Relationship, DrugAngolaDemocratic Republic of the CongoDisease OutbreaksHumansModels, TheoreticalVaccinationYellow FeverYellow Fever VaccineYellow Fever Vaccine

Identifiers

PMID27837923
PMCPMC5161610

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.