ArticleEpidemiology and infection2017
The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005-2013.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility for SARS-CoV-2 of Population Level and Cluster Level in a Chinese City.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Feasibility of containing shigellosis in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 - 2017.BMC infectious diseases · 2020Article
- A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Transmissibility of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in small-scale outbreaks in Hunan Province, China.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China.The Journal of international medical research · 2020Article
- Detecting influenza and emerging avian influenza virus by influenza and pneumonia surveillance systems in a large city in China, 2005 to 2016.BMC infectious diseases · 2019Article
- Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences · 2019Article
- Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2018Article
- Outbreak detection and evaluation of a school-based influenza-like-illness syndromic surveillance in Tianjin, China.PloS one · 2017Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
Hundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7·04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2·7 and the standard deviation (s.d.) σ = 1·1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2·51 (s.d. = 0·73), 4·11 (s.d. = 2·20) and 5·88 (s.d. = 5·00), respectively. When Tc = 2·9 and σ = 1·4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2·62 (s.d. = 0·78), 4·72 (s.d. = 2·82) and 6·86 (s.d. = 6·34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4·32 (s.d. = 2·47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model.
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