ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2016
Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Induction of systemic and mucosal immune response against Zika virus by vaccination with non-infectious chimeric VLPs.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Zika Virus-A Reemerging Neurotropic Arbovirus Associated with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Neuropathogenesis.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Article
- Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.BMC medicine · 2018Article
- Modeling the elevated risk of yellow fever among travelers visiting Brazil, 2018.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2018Article
- Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK.EcoHealth · 2018Article
- [Zika virus infection and the nervous system].Der Nervenarzt · 2018Review
- Inferring the risk factors behind the geographical spread and transmission of Zika in the Americas.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Article
- Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2017Review
- Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States.Journal of medical entomology · 2017Article
- Fitting dynamic models to epidemic outbreaks with quantified uncertainty: A Primer for parameter uncertainty, identifiability, and forecasts.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2017Article
- Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
- Asymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection.Scientific reports · 2017Article
- Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States.Nature · 2017Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundFlorida State has reported autochthonous transmission of Zika virus since late July 2016. Here we assessed the transmissibility associated with the outbreak and generated a short-term forecast.
methodsTime-dependent dynamics of imported cases reported in the state of Florida was approximated by a logistic growth equation. We estimated the reproduction number using the renewal equation in order to predict the incidence of local cases arising from both local and imported primary cases. Using a bootstrap method together with the logistic and renewal equations, a short-term forecast of local and imported cases was carried out.
resultsThe reproduction number was estimated at 0.16 (95 % Confidence Interval: 0.13, 0.19). Employing the logistic equation to capture a drastic decline in the number of imported cases expected through the course of 2016, together with the low estimate of the local reproduction number in Florida, the expected number of local reported cases was demonstrated to show an evident declining trend for the remainder of 2016.
conclusionsThe risk of local transmission in the state of Florida is predicted to dramatically decline by the end of 2016.
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