ArticlePloS one2016
Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses.
Article in PloS one, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identifying the viral and epidemiological factors behind the apparent global extinction of influenza B/Yamagata.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Unraveling the mechanism behind the probable extinction of the B/Yamagata lineage of influenza B viruses.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Influenza Activity and Preterm Birth in the Atlanta Metropolitan Area: A Time-Series Analysis from 2010 to 2017.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2025Article
- Review
- Influenza Vaccine: An Engineering Vision from Virological Importance to Production.Biotechnology and bioprocess engineering : BBE · 2022Review
- Impact of adjuvant: Trivalent vaccine with quadrivalent-like protection against heterologous Yamagata-lineage influenza B virus.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences · 2019Article
- The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21st century.PloS one · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The prediction of the lineage dynamics of influenza B viruses for the next season is one of the largest obstacles for constructing an appropriate influenza trivalent vaccine. Seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference between the two major influenza B lineages make the lineage dynamics complicated. Here we construct a parsimonious model describing the lineage dynamics while taking into account seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference. Using this model we estimated the epidemiological and evolutional parameters with the time-series data of the lineage specific isolates in Japan from the 2010-2011 season to the 2014-2015 season. The basic reproduction number is similar between Victoria and Yamagata, with a minimum value during one year as 0.82 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 0.77-0.87) for the Yamagata and 0.83 (95% HPD: 0.74-0.92) for Victoria, the amplitude of seasonal variation of the basic reproduction number is 0.77 (95% HPD:0.66-0.87) for Yamagata and 1.05 (95% HPD: 0.89-1.02) for Victoria. The duration for which the acquired immunity is effective against infection by the Yamagata lineage is shorter than the acquired immunity for Victoria, 424.1days (95% HPD:317.4-561.5days). The reduction rate of susceptibility due to immune cross-reaction is 0.51 (95% HPD: 0.084-0.92) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Yamagata against the infection with Victoria and 0.62 (95% HPD: 0.42-0.80) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Victoria against the infection with Yamagata. Using estimated parameters, we predicted the dominant lineage in 2015-2016 season. The accuracy of this prediction is 68.8% if the emergence timings of the two lineages are known and 61.4% if the emergence timings are unknown. Estimated seasonal variation of the lineage specific reproduction number can narrow down the range of emergence timing, with an accuracy of 64.6% if the emergence times are assumed to be the time at which the estimated reproduction number exceeds one.
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