Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27825343›Full record

ArticleBMC biology2016

Predicting Wolbachia invasion dynamics in Aedes aegypti populations using models of density-dependent demographic traits.

Penelope A Hancock, Vanessa L White, Scott A Ritchie, Ary A Hoffmann, H Charles J Godfray

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Introduction ofiScience · 2024
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Pathogens and global health · 2023
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Penelope A HancockDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK. hancock.penelope@gmail.com.
Vanessa L WhiteBio 21 Institute, School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia.
Scott A RitchieAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville City, Queensland, 4878, Australia.
Ary A HoffmannBio 21 Institute, School of Biosciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia.
H Charles J GodfrayDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundArbovirus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti can be reduced by the introduction and establishment of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia in wild populations of the vector. Wolbachia spreads by increasing the fitness of its hosts relative to uninfected mosquitoes. However, mosquito fitness is also strongly affected by population size through density-dependent competition for limited food resources. We do not understand how this natural variation in fitness affects symbiont spread, which limits our ability to design successful control strategies.

resultsWe develop a mathematical model to predict A. aegypti-Wolbachia dynamics that incorporates larval density-dependent variation in important fitness components of infected and uninfected mosquitoes. Our model explains detailed features of the mosquito-Wolbachia dynamics observed in two independent experimental A. aegypti populations, allowing the combined effects on dynamics of multiple density-dependent fitness components to be characterized. We apply our model to investigate Wolbachia field release dynamics, and show how invasion outcomes can depend strongly on the severity of density-dependent competition at the release site. Specifically, the ratio of released relative to wild mosquitoes required to attain a target infection frequency (at the end of a release program) can vary by nearly an order of magnitude. The time taken for Wolbachia to become established following releases can differ by over 2 years. These effects depend on the relative fitness of field and insectary-reared mosquitoes.

conclusionsModels of Wolbachia invasion incorporating density-dependent demographic variation in the host population explain observed dynamics in experimental A. aegypti populations. These models predict strong effects of density-dependence on Wolbachia dynamics in field populations, and can assist in the effective use of Wolbachia to control the transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya and zika.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalAedesAnimalsBayes TheoremWolbachiaZika VirusAedes aegyptiBayesian statistical modelDengueDensity-dependenceFitnessInvasionMosquitoVector-borne diseaseWolbachiaZika

Identifiers

PMID27825343
PMCPMC5100186

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.