ArticleeLife2016
A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda.
Article in eLife, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed.
- Untangling the effects of within-host and between-host natural selection in viruses with applications to evolution of HIV-1 co-receptor usage.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2026Article
- The Implications of HIV-1 Subtypes on Pathogenesis, Reservoirs and Cure Strategies.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2026Review
- Phylogenetics and molecular evolution to understand and curb the HIV pandemic.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2026Review
- Attenuation of HIV severity by slightly deleterious mutations can explain the long-term trajectory of virulence evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Evidence for circulation of high-virulence HIV-1 subtype B variants in the United Kingdom.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- No detectable differences in Nef-mediated downregulation of HLA-I and CD4 molecules among HIV-1 group M lineages circulating in Cameroon, where the pandemic originated.Frontiers in virology (Lausanne, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Modeling viral evolution: A novel SIRSVIDE framework with application to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.hLife · 2024Article
- Coevolution of Age-Structured Tolerance and Virulence.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Darwin review: the evolution of virulence in human pathogens.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Review
- HIV-1 subtypes maintain distinctive physicochemical signatures in Nef domains associated with immunoregulation.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Metabolic efficiency reshapes the seminal relationship between pathogen growth rate and virulence.Ecology letters · 2023Article
- Do pathogens always evolve to be less virulent? The virulence-transmission trade-off in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.Biologia futura · 2023Review
- Assessing the risk of West Nile Virus seasonal outbreaks and its vector control in an urbanizing bird community: An integrative R0-modelling study in the city of Merida, Mexico.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Viral proteases as therapeutic targets.Molecular aspects of medicine · 2022Review
- Structural bioinformatics analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants reveals higher hACE2 receptor binding affinity for Omicron B.1.1.529 spike RBD compared to wild type reference.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Coinfection with a virus constrains within-host infection load but increases transmission potential of a highly virulent fungal plant pathogen.Ecology and evolution · 2022Article
- Review
- Investigation of Cyprinid Herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3) Disease Periods and Factors Influencing CyHV-3 Transmission in A Low Stocking Density Infection Trial.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2021Article
- Subtype-specific differences in Gag-protease replication capacity of HIV-1 isolates from East and West Africa.Retrovirology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.