Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27802228›Full record

ArticleJournal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD2017

Development of a Late-Life Dementia Prediction Index with Supervised Machine Learning in the Population-Based CAIDE Study.

Timo Pekkala, Anette Hall, Jyrki Lötjönen, Jussi Mattila, Hilkka Soininen, Tiia Ngandu, Tiina Laatikainen, Miia Kivipelto, Alina Solomon

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Artificial intelligence for dementia prevention.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Timo PekkalaInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Neurology, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
Anette HallInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Neurology, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
Jyrki LötjönenVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Tampere, Finland.
Jussi MattilaCombinostics, Tampere, Finland.
Hilkka SoininenInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Neurology, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
Tiia NganduChronic Disease Prevention Unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
Tiina LaatikainenChronic Disease Prevention Unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
Miia KivipeltoInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Neurology, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
Alina SolomonInstitute of Clinical Medicine, Neurology, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectiveThis study aimed to develop a late-life dementia prediction model using a novel validated supervised machine learning method, the Disease State Index (DSI), in the Finnish population-based CAIDE study.

methodsThe CAIDE study was based on previous population-based midlife surveys. CAIDE participants were re-examined twice in late-life, and the first late-life re-examination was used as baseline for the present study. The main study population included 709 cognitively normal subjects at first re-examination who returned to the second re-examination up to 10 years later (incident dementia n = 39). An extended population (n = 1009, incident dementia 151) included non-participants/non-survivors (national registers data). DSI was used to develop a dementia index based on first re-examination assessments. Performance in predicting dementia was assessed as area under the ROC curve (AUC).

resultsAUCs for DSI were 0.79 and 0.75 for main and extended populations. Included predictors were cognition, vascular factors, age, subjective memory complaints, and APOE genotype.

conclusionThe supervised machine learning method performed well in identifying comprehensive profiles for predicting dementia development up to 10 years later. DSI could thus be useful for identifying individuals who are most at risk and may benefit from dementia prevention interventions.

Indexed as

Severity of Illness IndexSupervised Machine LearningAgedApolipoproteins ECerebrovascular DisordersCognitionCommunity Health PlanningDementiaFemaleFinlandHumansMaleNeuropsychological TestsPredictive Value of TestsReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesApolipoproteins EComputer-assisted decision makingdementiapredictionpreventionsupervised machine learning

Identifiers

PMID27802228
PMCPMC5147511

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.