ArticleArchives of trauma research2016
A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.
Article in Archives of trauma research, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting Road Traffic Injuries in North-Eastern Iran: The Effects of COVID-19 and Time Series Analysis (2009-2023).Open access emergency medicine : OAEM · 2026Article
- Research on Active Safety Situation of Road Passenger Transportation Enterprises: Evaluation, Prediction, and Analysis.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Imprint of ancestral and modern threats in human mind - experience of fear, disgust, and anger.Frontiers in psychology · 2024Article
- Forecasting time trend of road traffic crashes in Iran using the macro-scale traffic flow characteristics.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Assessment of the Influence of Technology-Based Distracted Driving on Drivers' Infractions and Their Subsequent Impact on Traffic Accidents Severity.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Analysis of Hospital Costs in Road Traffic Injuries.Bulletin of emergency and trauma · 2021Article
- Prediction Mortality Rate Due to the Road-Traffic Accidents in Kazakhstan.Iranian journal of public health · 2020Article
- Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.Burns & trauma · 2018Article
- Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRoad traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control.
objectivesThis study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. MATERIALS AND
methodsIn this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years.
resultsThe mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years.
conclusionsThere was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.
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