ArticleMedicine2016
Predicting mortality from change-over-time in the Charlson Comorbidity Index: A retrospective cohort study in a data-intensive UK health system.
Article in Medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Current and historic patterns of chronic disease burden are associated with physical activity and sedentary behavior in older adults: an observational study.BMC public health · 2025Observational
- Adolescent Obesity and Charlson Comorbidity Index in Young Adults.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Application of GUHA data mining method in cohort data to explore paths associated with premature death: a 29-year follow-up study.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Tree-based analysis of longevity predictors and their ten-year changes: a 35-Year mortality follow-up.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- Medical imaging utilization in migrants compared with nonmigrants in a universal healthcare system: A population-based matched cohort study.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- Creating a Modified Version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score to Predict Mortality in People Older Than 16 Years: Model Development and Validation.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
- Higher risk of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy compared to oral anticoagulation-a single-center experience.European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society · 2024Article
- Validity of the Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index in measuring disease burden using health check-ups data in primary care.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Predictive ability of both the healthy aging index and the frailty index for all-cause mortality.GeroScience · 2024Article
- Open versus arthroscopic treatment of the rheumatoid elbow arthritis: a comparison of complications at two years utilizing a nationally representative database.European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2024Article
- Outcomes of in-hospital cardiac arrest managed with and without a specialized code team: A retrospective observational study.PloS one · 2024Observational
- Adverse Events After Isolated Posterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A National Database Study.Orthopaedic journal of sports medicine · 2024Article
- 10-Year Multimorbidity Trajectories in Older People Have Limited Benefit in Predicting Short-Term Health Outcomes in Comparison to Standard Multimorbidity Thresholds: A Population-Based Study.Clinical epidemiology · 2024Article
- Complication Rates and Survival of Nonagenarians after Hip Hemiarthroplasty versus Proximal Femoral Nail Antirotation for Intertrochanteric Fractures: A 15-Year Retrospective Cohort Study of 113 Cases.Orthopaedic surgery · 2023Article
- Risk factors for early mortality in elderly patients with unstable isolated C2 odontoid fracture treated with halo-vest or surgery.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Observational
- Delayed intracranial hemorrhage after head trauma seems rare and rarely needs intervention-even in antiplatelet or anticoagulation therapy.International journal of emergency medicine · 2023Article
- A comparison of palliative care and rapid emergency screening (P-CaRES) tool, broad and narrow criteria, and surprise questions to predict survival of older emergency department patients.BMC palliative care · 2023Article
- Improving the evaluation of an integrated healthcare system using entropy balancing: Population health improvements in Gesundes Kinzigtal.SSM - population health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Multimorbidity is common among older people and presents a major challenge to health systems worldwide. Metrics of multimorbidity are, however, crude: focusing on measuring comorbid conditions at single time-points rather than reflecting the longitudinal and additive nature of chronic conditions. In this paper, we explore longitudinal comorbidity metrics and their value in predicting mortality.Using linked primary and secondary care data, we conducted a retrospective cohort study on adults in Salford, UK from 2005 to 2014 (n = 287,459). We measured multimorbidity with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and quantified its changes in various time windows. We used survival models to assess the relationship between CCI changes and mortality, controlling for gender, age, baseline CCI, and time-dependent CCI. Goodness-of-fit was assessed with the Akaike Information Criterion and discrimination with the c-statistic.Overall, 15.9% patients experienced a change in CCI after 10 years, with a mortality rate of 19.8%. The model that included gender and time-dependent age, CCI, and CCI change across consecutive time windows had the best fit to the data but equivalent discrimination to the other time-dependent models. The absolute CCI score gave a constant hazard ratio (HR) of around 1.3 per unit increase, while CCI change afforded greater prognostic impact, particularly when it occurred in shorter time windows (maximum HR value for the 3-month time window, with 1.63 and 95% confidence interval 1.59-1.66).Change over time in comorbidity is an important but overlooked predictor of mortality, which should be considered in research and care quality management.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.