Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27777030›Full record

SynthesisThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2017

The geography of imported malaria to non-endemic countries: a meta-analysis of nationally reported statistics.

Andrew J Tatem, Peng Jia, Dariya Ordanovich, Michael Falkner, Zhuojie Huang, Rosalind Howes, Simon I Hay, Peter W Gething, David L Smith

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 115 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
115citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

115 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Article
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  10. Historical evolution of the epidemiology of Malaria in Spain and Europe. Future perspectives.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2025
    Review
  11. Molecular Characterization ofTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025
    Article
  12. Recurrent Malaria withTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Mapping residual malaria transmission in Vietnam.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

55 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Andrew J TatemWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: a.j.tatem@soton.ac.uk.
Peng JiaFaculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands.
Dariya OrdanovichWorldPop, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Michael FalknerDepartment of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
Zhuojie HuangDivision of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Rosalind HowesSpatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Centre for Global Health and Diseases, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Simon I HayInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle WA, USA; Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Peter W GethingOxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
David L SmithInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle WA, USA; Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

Funding

Transmission ProjectU19AI089674 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Joaniter Immaculate Nankabirwa · 2010 to 2026
$29.3M
Medical Research Council MR/K00669X/1NIAID NIH HHS U19 AI089674Wellcome Trust 095066
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMalaria remains a problem for many countries classified as malaria free through cases imported from endemic regions. Imported cases to non-endemic countries often result in delays in diagnosis, are expensive to treat, and can sometimes cause secondary local transmission. The movement of malaria in endemic countries has also contributed to the spread of drug resistance and threatens long-term eradication goals. Here we focused on quantifying the international movements of malaria to improve our understanding of these phenomena and facilitate the design of mitigation strategies.

methodsIn this meta-analysis, we studied the database of publicly available nationally reported statistics on imported malaria in the past 10 years, covering more than 50 000 individual cases. We obtained data from 40 non-endemic countries and recorded the geographical variations.

findingsInfection movements were strongly skewed towards a small number of high-traffic routes between 2005 and 2015, with the west Africa region accounting for 56% (13 947/24 941) of all imported cases to non-endemic countries with a reported travel destination, and France and the UK receiving the highest number of cases, with more than 4000 reported cases per year on average. Countries strongly linked by movements of imported cases are grouped by historical, language, and travel ties. There is strong spatial clustering of plasmodium species types.

interpretationThe architecture of the air network, historical ties, demographics of travellers, and malaria endemicity contribute to highly heterogeneous patterns of numbers, routes, and species compositions of parasites transported. With global malaria eradication on the international agenda, malaria control altering local transmission, and the threat of drug resistance, understanding these patterns and their drivers is increasing in importance.

fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust.

Indexed as

Africa, WesternDrug ResistanceFranceGeography, MedicalGlobal HealthHumansMalariaPlasmodiumTransients and MigrantsTravelUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID27777030
PMCPMC5392593

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.