Altered Precipitation Impacts on Above- and Below-Ground Grassland Invertebrates: Summer Drought Leads to Outbreaks in Spring.

Climate change is predicted to result in altered precipitation patterns, which may reshape many grassland ecosystems. Rainfall is expected to change in a number of different ways, ranging from periods of prolonged drought to extreme precipitation events, yet there are few community wide studies to accurately simulate future changes. We aimed to test how above- and below-ground grassland invertebrate populations were affected by contrasting future rainfall scenarios. We subjected a grassland community to potential future rainfall scenarios including ambient, increased amount (+50% of ambient), reduced amount (-50% of ambient), reduced frequency (no water for 21 days, followed by the total ambient rainfall applied in a single application) and summer drought (no rainfall for 13 weeks during the growing season). During Austral spring (September 2015), we sampled aboveground invertebrates, belowground macro invertebrates and nematodes. Aboveground communities showed a significant response to altered rainfall regime with the greatest effects observed in summer drought plots. This was mostly due to a large increase in sucking herbivores (658% higher than ambient plots). Plots experiencing summer droughts also had higher populations of parasitoids, chewing herbivores and detritivores. These plots had 92% more plant biomass suggesting that primary productivity increased rapidly following the end of the summer drought 5 months earlier. We interpret these results as supporting the plant vigor hypothesis (i.e., that rapid plant growth is beneficial to aboveground invertebrates). While belowground invertebrates were less responsive to altered precipitation, we observed a number of correlations between the abundances of above- and below-ground invertebrate groups under ambient rainfall that dissipated under altered rainfall regimes. Mechanisms underpinning these associations, and reasons for them to become decoupled under altered precipitation regimes (we term this 'climatic decoupling'), remain speculative, but they provide the basis for formulating hypotheses and future work. In conclusion, we predict that shifts in rainfall patterns, especially summer drought, will likely have large, but probably short-term, impacts on grassland invertebrate communities. In particular, sucking herbivores show sensitivity to precipitation changes, which have the potential to cascade through the food chain and affect higher trophic levels.