ArticleEpidemiology and infection2017
Dynamic modelling of strategies for the control of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks in schools in Changsha, China (2004-2015).
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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9 citing papers in PubMed, 17 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evaluating the effects of control interventions and estimating the inapparent infections for dengue outbreak in Hangzhou, China.PloS one · 2019Trial
- Identification of coxsackievirus A24 variant during an acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreak in coastal Kenya, 2024.Wellcome open research · 2025Article
- Epidemiological trends and sociodemographic factors associated with acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in mainland China from 2004 to 2018.Virology journal · 2022Article
- Epidemiological Investigation and Risk Factor Analysis of Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in Huangshi Port District, Huangshi City.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- Transmissibility of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in small-scale outbreaks in Hunan Province, China.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Relative transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease from male to female individuals.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2018Article
- Outbreak detection and evaluation of a school-based influenza-like-illness syndromic surveillance in Tianjin, China.PloS one · 2017Article
- Clinical Features and Epidemiological Insights of Acute Epidemic Conjunctivitis: A Multicentric Cross-Sectional Study in North Central India.Romanian journal of ophthalmologyObservational
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6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Outbreaks of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) - a rapidly progressing and highly contagious infection - often occur in schools during summer and autumn. We used dynamic modelling to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to control AHC outbreaks in schools. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was built to simulate AHC outbreaks in Chinese schools, with isolation or school closure added into the model. We used outbreak data from the period 2004-2015 in our models to estimate the effective reproduction number and assess the efficacy of interventions. The median effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) of AHC outbreaks was 7·00 (range 1·77-25·87). The median effective reproduction number (controlled) of AHC outbreaks was 0·16 (range 0·00-2·28). Intervention efficacy is affected by the timing of isolation; earlier isolation is associated with a lower morbidity peak and smaller total attack rate (TAR). School closures were not effective; TARs were almost 100% and did not change even when different school closure durations were adopted. Isolation and school closure as a combined intervention strategy was used to simulate outbreak control, but the efficacy was the same as isolation alone. An isolation programme could be an effective primary intervention during AHC outbreaks in schools. However, school closure is not recommended.
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