ArticlePloS one2016
Projected Uptake of New Antiretroviral (ARV) Medicines in Adults in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Forecast Analysis 2015-2025.
Article in PloS one, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Public availability of HIV-1 drug resistance sequence and treatment data: a systematic review.The Lancet. Microbe · 2022Pooled it
- The Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on Neurocognitive Outcomes Among People Living with HIV in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs): A Systematic Review.AIDS and behavior · 2021Pooled it
- Social and Structural Determinants of Household Support for ART Adherence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review .International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Pooled it
- Impact of Dolutegravir-Based Antiretroviral Therapy on Viral Load Suppression and Uptake of DTG-Based Regimen Among Pediatric HIV Patients in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS CarePooled it
- Third-line antiretroviral therapy in low-income and middle-income countries (ACTG A5288): a prospective strategy study.The lancet. HIV · 2019Trial
- Antiretroviral therapy and vaginally administered contraceptive hormones: a three-arm, pharmacokinetic study.The lancet. HIV · 2019Trial
- Diagnostic accuracy and practicability of the VISITECTAIDS research and therapy · 2026Article
- Persistent sex disparities in access to dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in Latin America and the Caribbean: results from a retrospective observational study using data from 2017 to 2022.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Observational
- Virologic suppression rate and associated factors for third-line HIV treatment in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Drug-Related Problems in HIV Treatment Failure.Cureus · 2024Article
- Underlying Neural Mechanisms of Cognitive Improvement in Fronto-striatal Response Inhibition in People Living with HIV Switching Off Efavirenz: A Randomized Controlled BOLD fMRI Trial.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- Durability of the Efficacy and Safety of Dolutegravir-Based and Low-Dose Efavirenz-Based Regimens for the Initial Treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection in Cameroon: Week 192 Data of the NAMSAL-ANRS-12313 Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Antiretroviral Regimen and Pregnancy Outcomes of Women Living with HIV in a US Cohort.Infectious diseases in clinical practice (Baltimore, Md.) · 2023Article
- Voluntary licensing of long-acting HIV prevention and treatment regimens: using a proven collaboration- and competition-based mechanism to rapidly expand at-scale, sustainable, quality-assured and affordable supplies in LMICs.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2023Article
- Predictors of virologic outcome among people living with HIV who continue a protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral regimen following virologic failure with no or limited resistance.AIDS research and therapy · 2023Article
- Effectiveness and safety of integrase strand transfer inhibitors in Spain: a prospective real-world study.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2023Article
- Viral Load Status Before Switching to Dolutegravir-Containing Antiretroviral Therapy and Associations With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Real-world use and outcomes of dolutegravir-containing antiretroviral therapy in HIV and tuberculosis co-infection: a site survey and cohort study in sub-Saharan Africa.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
With anti-retroviral treatment (ART) scale-up set to continue over the next few years it is of key importance that manufacturers and planners in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic are able to anticipate and respond to future changes to treatment regimens, generics pipeline and demand, in order to secure continued access to all ARV medicines required. We did a forecast analysis, using secondary WHO and UNAIDS data sources, to estimate the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) and the market share and demand for a range of new and existing ARV drugs in LMICs up to 2025. UNAIDS estimates 24.7 million person-years of ART in 2020 and 28.5 million person-years of ART in 2025 (24.3 million on first-line treatment, 3.5 million on second-line treatment, and 0.6 million on third-line treatment). Our analysis showed that TAF and DTG will be major players in the ART regimen by 2025, with 8 million and 15 million patients using these ARVs respectively. However, as safety and efficacy of dolutegravir (DTG) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) during pregnancy and among TB/HIV co-infected patients using rifampicin is still under debate, and ART scale-up is predicted to increase considerably, there also remains a clear need for continuous supplies of existing ARVs including TDF and EFV, which 16 million and 10 million patients-respectively-are predicted to be using in 2025. It will be important to ensure that the existing capacities of generics manufacturers, which are geared towards ARVs of higher doses (such as TDF 300mg and EFV 600mg), will not be adversely impacted due to the introduction of lower dose ARVs such as TAF 25mg and DTG 50mg. With increased access to viral load testing, more patients would be using protease inhibitors containing regimens in second-line, with 1 million patients on LPV/r and 2.3 million on ATV/r by 2025. However, it will remain important to continue monitoring the evolution of ARV market in LMICs to guarantee the availability of these medicines.
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