Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27730661›Full record

ArticleStatistics in medicine2017

The use of repeated blood pressure measures for cardiovascular risk prediction: a comparison of statistical models in the ARIC study.

Michael J Sweeting, Jessica K Barrett, Simon G Thompson, Angela M Wood

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Statistics in medicine, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
31citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

31 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Michael J SweetingDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0980-8965
Jessica K BarrettDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K.
Simon G ThompsonDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-7814
Angela M WoodDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, U.K.

Funding

European Research Council 268834Medical Research Council G0800270Medical Research Council G0902100Medical Research Council MC_UU_00002/5Medical Research Council MR/L501566/1NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005GNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100006CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100007CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100007INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100010CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100012C
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Many prediction models have been developed for the risk assessment and the prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care. Recent efforts have focused on improving the accuracy of these prediction models by adding novel biomarkers to a common set of baseline risk predictors. Few have considered incorporating repeated measures of the common risk predictors. Through application to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and simulations, we compare models that use simple summary measures of the repeat information on systolic blood pressure, such as (i) baseline only; (ii) last observation carried forward; and (iii) cumulative mean, against more complex methods that model the repeat information using (iv) ordinary regression calibration; (v) risk-set regression calibration; and (vi) joint longitudinal and survival models. In comparison with the baseline-only model, we observed modest improvements in discrimination and calibration using the cumulative mean of systolic blood pressure, but little further improvement from any of the complex methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indexed as

Blood Pressure DeterminationRegression AnalysisBiasBiomarkersBlood PressureCardiovascular DiseasesComputer SimulationFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedModels, StatisticalRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSurvival AnalysisBiomarkerscardiovascular risk predictionC-indexjoint modelsregression calibrationrepeat measures

Identifiers

PMID27730661
PMCPMC5724484

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.