ArticleClinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association2017
Predicted Increases in Incidence of Colorectal Cancer in Developed and Developing Regions, in Association With Ageing Populations.
Article in Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 58 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Genomic ancestry and cancer among Latin Americans.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2024Review
- Colonic expression of glutathioneHeliyon · 2023Article
- Time series models show comparable projection performance with joinpoint regression: A comparison using historical cancer data from World Health Organization.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Prediction of recurrence after surgery in colorectal cancer patients using radiomics from diagnostic contrast-enhanced computed tomography: a two-center study.European radiology · 2022Article
- Microsimulation Model for Prevention and Intervention of Coloretal Cancer in China (MIMIC-CRC): Development, Calibration, Validation, and Application.Frontiers in oncology · 2022Article
- Mesenchymal stem cell-derived exosomes for gastrointestinal cancer.World journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2021Review
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- Application of droplet digital polymerase chain reaction of plasma methylated septin 9 on detection and early monitoring of colorectal cancer.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Adherence to Surveillance Guidelines after the Removal of Colorectal Polyps: A Multinational, Multicenter, Prospective Survey.Gut and liver · 2021Article
- Knowledge, adherence and perceptions about colorectal cancer screening in primary and secondary school teachers in CarcarañáRevista de la Facultad de Ciencias Medicas (Cordoba, Argentina) · 2021Article
- Prognostic factors for stage III colon cancer in patients 80 years of age and older.International journal of colorectal disease · 2021Article
- Developing a clinical decision support system based on the fuzzy logic and decision tree to predict colorectal cancer.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2021Article
- Long Noncoding RNA LINC00857 Promotes Proliferation, Migration, and Invasion of Colorectal Cancer Cell through miR-1306/Vimentin Axis.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2021Article
- Incidence of Colorectal Cancer in Selected Countries of Latin America: Age-Period-Cohort Effect.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP · 2020Article
- Acarbose improved survival for ApcAging cell · 2020Article
- Effects of screening and universal healthcare on long-term colorectal cancer mortality.International journal of epidemiology · 2019Article
- Functional polymorphisms of the lncRNACancer cell international · 2019Article
- Roles of Methylated DNA Biomarkers in Patients with Colorectal Cancer.Disease markers · 2019Review
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BACKGROUND &
aimsPopulation growth and changes in demographic structure are linked to trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. The aim of this study is to estimate future CRC incidence in the ageing population, and compare trends across developing and developed regions.
methodsCancer and population data were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Annual incidence rates for the major types of cancer in 118 selected populations were extracted from 102 cancer registries in 39 countries worldwide. We selected 8 jurisdictions (from the United States, Europe, and Asia) that reported 20-year cancer incidence rates since 1988. Time series models were constructed to project cancer incidence, by sex and age, to 2030. Incidence rates for persons older than 65 years were combined and further adjusted for change of ageing population. We compared age-adjusted incidence rates among the jurisdictions.
resultsThe total population older than 65 years old was 12,917,794 in 1988, and the number increased by almost 40% to 17,950,115 in 2007. In developed countries in the West CRC incidence is predicted to decrease by 16.3% in the United States, increase by 4.8% in the United Kingdom, and increase by 4.7% in Sweden by 2030. In developing countries, such as China (Shanghai), Croatia, and Costa Rica, CRC incidence is predicted to increase in a steep curve by 2030 because of the growing population and ageing effect; in 2030, the incidence increases were 60.5% for China, 47.0% for Croatia, and 18.5% for Costa Rica. We also predict CRC incidence will increase greatly by 2030 in Japan and Hong Kong, which are developed regions.
conclusionsWith the exception of the United States, the incidence of CRC is expected to continue to rise in most regions in the coming decades, due to population growth and changes in demographic structure. The predicted increases are more marked in developing regions with limited health care resources.
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