Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27720688›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2016

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, Hsien-Ho Lin, Chieh-Yin Wu, Sandip Mandal, Surabhi Pandey and 40 more

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Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 115 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
115citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

115 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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  4. Pooled it
  5. Guideline
  6. Pooled it
  7. Pooled it
  8. Trial
  9. Review
  10. A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026
    Article
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  15. Article
  16. RNA vaccines: The dawn of a new age for tuberculosis?Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Effectiveness of centralized hospitalization treatment on transmission in household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis patients: a contact-traced study.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2025
    Article
  19. Post-tuberculosis morbidities and their associated mortality: moving from challenges to solutions.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025
    Review
  20. Article

55 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

50 authors.

Rein M G J HoubenTB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: rein.houben@lshtm.ac.uk.
Nicolas A MenziesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Tom SumnerTB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Grace H HuynhInstitute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nimalan ArinaminpathyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.
Jeremy D Goldhaber-FiebertStanford Health Policy, Centers for Health Policy and Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Hsien-Ho LinInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Chieh-Yin WuInstitute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Sandip MandalPublic Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.
Surabhi PandeyPublic Health Foundation of India, Delhi NCR, India.
Sze-Chuan SuenManagement Science and Engineering Dept, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Eran BendavidDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Andrew S AzmanDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
David W DowdyDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Nicolas BacaërIRD, UMMISCO, Bondy, France.
Allison S RhinesDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Johnson & Johnson Global Public Health, Raritan, NJ, USA.
Marcus W FeldmanDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Andreas HandelDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Christopher C WhalenDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Stewart T ChangInstitute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.
Bradley G WagnerInstitute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.
Philip A EckhoffInstitute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA, USA.
James M TrauerThe Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Justin T DenholmThe Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Emma S McBrydeThe Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia; The Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, the University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, Australia.
Ted CohenDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
Joshua A SalomonDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Carel PretoriusAvenir Health, Glastonbury, CT, USA.
Marek LalliTB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Jeffrey W EatonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Delia BocciaFaculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Mehran HosseiniStrategic Information Department, The Global Fund, Geneva, Switzerland.
Gabriela B GomezDepartment of Global Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Suvanand SahuStop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.
Colleen DanielsStop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lucica DitiuStop TB Partnership, Geneva, Switzerland.
Daniel P ChinBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, China Office, Beijing, China.
Lixia WangNational Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Vineet K ChadhaEpidemiology and Research Division, National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore, India.
Kiran RadeWorld Health Organization, Country Office for India, New Delhi, India.
Puneet DewanThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, New Delhi, India.
Piotr HippnerAurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa.
Salome CharalambousAurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa.
Alison D GrantDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Gavin ChurchyardAurum Institute. Johannesburg, South Africa; School of Public Health, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Yogan PillayNational Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa.
L David MametjaNational Department of Health, Pretoria, South Africa.
Michael E KimerlingBill and Melinda Gates foundation, Seattle, WA, USA (currently KNCV Tuberculosisn Foundation, The Hague, Netherlands).
Anna VassallDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Richard G WhiteTB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Faculty of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Funding

Community Transmission of Tuberculosis Urban AfricaR01AI093856 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA · PI WHALEN, CHRISTOPHER C. · 2012 to 2021
$5.7M
Computational and Molecular Epidemiology Training in TB and HIV in UgandaD43TW010045 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA · PI WHALEN, CHRISTOPHER C. · 2015 to 2019
$1.5M
Cost-effective chronic disease prevention in developing countriesK01AG037593 · NIA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI GOLDHABER-FIEBERT, JEREMY DAVID · 2011 to 2015
$637k
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW010045Medical Research Council MR/J005088/1Medical Research Council MR/K010174/1NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI093856NIA NIH HHS K01 AG037593World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements.

methods11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy.

findingsAggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis.

interpretationMajor reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level.

fundingBill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indexed as

AchievementDelivery of Health CareGoalsAntitubercular AgentsCause of DeathChinaForecastingHealth Services AccessibilityHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceIndiaIsoniazidMass ScreeningModels, TheoreticalSouth AfricaAntitubercular AgentsIsoniazid

Identifiers

PMID27720688
PMCPMC6375908

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.