ArticlePLoS computational biology2016
Retrospective Parameter Estimation and Forecast of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed.
- Live-attenuated vaccines of human respiratory syncytial virus for infants and young children: Progress and prospects of an old yet promising platform.Biosafety and health · 2026Review
- Incidence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Among Patients Aged Less Than 2 Years: A Retrospective Study From an Italian Southern Region in Years 2018-2023.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Observational
- Uncovering the post-pandemic timing of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 driving seasonal influenza-like illness in the United States: a retrospective ecological study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Using COVID-19 pandemic perturbation to model RSV-hMPV interactions and potential implications under RSV interventions.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Modelling immunity gaps to quantify infection resurgences.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Eco-evolutionary dynamics of pathogen immune-escape: deriving a population-level phylodynamic curve.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and live cell extrusion contribute to measles virus release from human airway epithelia.Journal of virology · 2025Article
- Near-source wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, norovirus, influenza virus and RSV across five different sites in the UK.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Burden of Acute Respiratory Infections Caused by Influenza Virus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, and SARS-CoV-2 with Consideration of Older Adults: A Narrative Review.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Review
- Identifying climatic drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonality in Antananarivo, Madagascar, 2011-2021: a sentinel surveillance study.BMJ public health · 2024Article
- Characterizing the interactions between influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses and their implications for epidemic control.Nature communications · 2024Article
- A two-variant model of SARS-COV-2 transmission: estimating the characteristics of a newly emerging strain.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- The acute bronchiolitis rebound in children after COVID-19 restrictions: a retrospective, observational analysis.Acta bio-medica : Atenei Parmensis · 2023Observational
- RSV disease in infants and young children: Can we see a brighter future?Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Countermeasures on Pediatric Infections.Microorganisms · 2022Article
- Exploring Socioeconomic Status as a Global Determinant of COVID-19 Prevalence, Using Exploratory Data Analytic and Supervised Machine Learning Techniques: Algorithm Development and Validation Study.JMIR formative research · 2022Article
- An Outbreak of Severe Neonatal Pneumonia Caused by Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus BA9 in a Postpartum Care Centre in Shenyang, China.Microbiology spectrum · 2022Article
- Characterizing the COVID-19 dynamics with a new epidemic model: Susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-symptomatic-active-removed.The Canadian journal of statistics = Revue canadienne de statistique · 2022Article
- Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Review
- No Change ofJournal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Recent studies have shown that systems combining mathematical modeling and Bayesian inference methods can be used to generate real-time forecasts of future infectious disease incidence. Here we develop such a system to study and forecast respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). RSV is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection and bronchiolitis. Advanced warning of the epidemic timing and volume of RSV patient surges has the potential to reduce well-documented delays of treatment in emergency departments. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model in conjunction with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) and ten years of regional U.S. specimen data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data and EAKF are used to optimize the SIR model and i) estimate critical epidemiological parameters over the course of each outbreak and ii) generate retrospective forecasts. The basic reproductive number, R0, is estimated at 3.0 (standard deviation 0.6) across all seasons and locations. The peak magnitude of RSV outbreaks is forecast with nearly 70% accuracy (i.e. nearly 70% of forecasts within 25% of the actual peak), four weeks before the predicted peak. This work represents a first step in the development of a real-time RSV prediction system.
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Registered trials
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