ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2017
An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 130 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EBioMedicine · 2023Pooled it
- The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Communicable Disease Incidence and Its Projection: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2021Pooled it
- Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Pooled it
- A systematic review of individual and community mitigation measures for prevention and control of chikungunya virus.PloS one · 2019Pooled it
- The evolution of public health statistical modeling approaches and how to advance their incorporation into modern arboviral surveillance.Journal of medical entomology · 2026Article
- Review
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Advance Warning and Response Systems in Kenya: A Scoping Review.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Impact of migratory flows and socio-environmental factors on dengue epidemiology in Oaxaca, Mexico.Frontiers in sociology · 2025Review
- Temperature-Driven Dengue Transmission in a Changing Climate: Patterns, Trends, and Future Projections.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Winged Threat on the Offensive: A Literature Review Due to the First Identification ofViruses · 2024Review
- Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Projecting temperature-related dengue burden in the Philippines under various socioeconomic pathway scenarios.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Spatial model of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) risk: scoping review.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Impact of climate change on dengue fever epidemics in South and Southeast Asian settings: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Arthropod-borne encephalitis: an overview for the clinician and emerging considerations.Postgraduate medical journal · 2023Review
- Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina.Environmental health perspectives · 2023Article
- Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission.
objectivesWe assessed projected climate change-driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region.
methodsWe used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate
resultsOur simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model.
conclusionsOur findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations.
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