ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2016
Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review.Physics of life reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Dengue Prediction in Latin America Using Machine Learning and the One Health Perspective: A Literature Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Review
- Reduced dengue incidence during the COVID-19 movement restrictions in Sri Lanka from March 2020 to April 2021.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Diseases spectrum in the field of spatiotemporal patterns mining of infectious diseases epidemics: A bibliometric and content analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Regional Variation in Dengue Virus Serotypes in Sri Lanka and Its Clinical and Epidemiological Relevance.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- The impact of dengue illness on social distancing and caregiving behavior.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- The impact of novel coronavirus (2019-One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- Implications of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Dengue Transmission in Malaysia.Infectious disease reports · 2021Article
- Discrete epidemic models with two time scales.Advances in difference equations · 2021Article
- An SIS model for the epidemic dynamics with two phases of the human day-to-day activity.Journal of mathematical biology · 2020Article
- Dengue illness impacts daily human mobility patterns in Iquitos, Peru.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Article
- Seroprevalence of dengue in school children in Mexico ages 6-17 years, 2016.Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene · 2018Article
- Analysis of spatial mobility in subjects from a Dengue endemic urban locality in Morelos State, Mexico.PloS one · 2017Article
- Effect of social isolation in dengue cases in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: An analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic.Travel medicine and infectious diseaseArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue is a growing public health problem in tropical and subtropical cities. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, and the main strategy for epidemic prevention and control is insecticide fumigation. Effective management is, however, proving elusive. People's day-to-day movement about the city is believed to be an important factor in the epidemiological dynamics. We use a simple model to examine the fundamental roles of broad demographic and spatial structures in epidemic initiation, growth and control. We show that the key factors are local dilution, characterised by the vector-host ratio, and spatial connectivity, characterised by the extent of habitually variable movement patterns. Epidemic risk in the population is driven by the demographic groups that frequent the areas with the highest vector-host ratio, even if they only spend some of their time there. Synchronisation of epidemic trajectories in different demographic groups is governed by the vector-host ratios to which they are exposed and the strength of connectivity. Strategies for epidemic prevention and management may be made more effective if they take into account the fluctuating landscape of transmission intensity associated with spatial heterogeneity in the vector-host ratio and people's day-to-day movement patterns.
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