Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27665722›Full record

ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society

Optimizing HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation among men who have sex with men in a large urban centre: a dynamic modelling study.

Derek R MacFadden, Darrell H Tan, Sharmistha Mishra

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
3.6field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 31 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Derek R MacFaddenDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Darrell H TanDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Sharmistha MishraDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, St. Michael's Hospital, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Imperial College London · GBSt. Michael's Hospital · CAUniversity of Toronto · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionOnce-daily tenofovir/emtricitabine-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can reduce HIV acquisition in men who have sex with men (MSM), by 44% in the iPrEx trial, and reaching up to 99% with high adherence. We examined the potential population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of different PrEP implementation strategies.

methodsWe developed a dynamic, stochastic compartmental model of HIV transmission among the estimated 57,400 MSM in Toronto, Canada. Parameterization was performed using local epidemiologic data. Strategies examined included (1) uniform PrEP delivery versus targeting the highest risk decile of MSM (with varying coverage proportions); (2) increasing PrEP efficacy as a surrogate of adherence (44% to 99%); and (3) varying HIV test frequency (once monthly to once yearly). Outcomes included HIV infections averted and the incremental cost ($CAD) per incremental quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained over 20 years.

resultsUse of PrEP among all HIV-uninfected MSM at 25, 50, 75 and 100% coverage prevented 1970, 3427, 4317, and 4581 infections, respectively, with cost/QALY increasing from $500,000 to $800,000 CAD. Targeted PrEP for the highest risk MSM at 25, 50, 75 and 100% coverage prevented 1166, 2154, 2816, and 3012 infections, respectively, with cost/QALY ranging from $35,000 to $70,000 CAD. Maximizing PrEP efficacy, in a scenario of 25% coverage of high-risk MSM with PrEP, prevented 1540 infections with a cost/QALY of $15,000 CAD. HIV testing alone (Q3 months) averted 898 of infections with a cost savings of $4,000 CAD per QALY.

conclusionsThe optimal implementation strategy for PrEP over the next 20 years at this urban centre is to target high-risk MSM and to maximize efficacy by supporting PrEP adherence. A large health benefit of PrEP implementation could come from engaging undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals into care.

Indexed as

cost-effectivenessdynamic modelHIVPrEPpreventionprophylaxis

Identifiers

PMID27665722
PMCPMC5035769
OpenAlexW2523631564

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.