Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula.

Damon J A Toth, Windy D Tanner, Karim Khader, Adi V Gundlapalli

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in Epidemics, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

0citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Damon J A TothDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, UT, USA. Electronic address: Damon.Toth@hsc.utah.edu.

Windy D TannerDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

Karim KhaderDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

Adi V GundlapalliDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Department of Pathology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.

Funding

Synthetic Information Systems for Better Informing Public Health PolicymakersU01GM070694 · NIGMS · VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INST AND ST UNIV · PI EUBANK, STEPHEN G, MARATHE, MADHAV VISHNU · 2004 to 2016

$8.6M

Informatics, Decision-Enhancement and Analytic Sciences CenterI50HX001240 · VA · VA SALT LAKE CITY HEALTHCARE SYSTEM · PI SAMORE, MATTHEW H · 2015 to 2015

–

HSRD VA I50 HX001240NIGMS NIH HHS U01 GM070694

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksCoronavirus InfectionsHumansMiddle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronavirusRiskMathematical modelMERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome)OutbreaksPublic healthRisk assessment

Identifiers

PMID27663788

DOI10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002

PMCPMC5047297

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata

Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.