ArticleMalaria journal2016
Quantitative, model-based estimates of variability in the generation and serial intervals of Plasmodium falciparum malaria.
Article in Malaria journal, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 48 citations in OpenAlex.
- Scenario-driven shifts in future Usutu and West Nile virus outbreak characteristics in the Netherlands.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Benchmarking and optimization of methods for the detection of identity-by-descent in high-recombiningeLife · 2025Article
- Potential and pitfalls of using identity-by-descent for malaria genomic surveillance.Trends in parasitology · 2025Review
- Combining machine learning and dynamic system techniques to early detection of respiratory outbreaks in routinely collected primary healthcare records.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- Genomics reveals heterogeneous Plasmodium falciparum transmission and selection signals in Zambia.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Genomics reveals heterogeneousmedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Measurably recombining malaria parasites.Trends in parasitology · 2023Review
- Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- The importance of the generation interval in investigating dynamics and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Receptivity to malaria: meaning and measurement.Malaria journal · 2022Review
- Inferring person-to-person networks of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: are analyses of routine surveillance data up to the task?Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Plasmodium falciparum importation does not sustain malaria transmission in a semi-arid region of Kenya.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Inference of malaria reproduction numbers in three elimination settings by combining temporal data and distance metrics.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Malaria Elimination in Costa Rica: Changes in Treatment and Mass Drug Administration.Microorganisms · 2020Article
- Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Falciparum malaria from coastal Tanzania and Zanzibar remains highly connected despite effective control efforts on the archipelago.Malaria journal · 2020Article
- Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease.Ecology letters · 2019Review
- Robustness of the reproductive number estimates in vector-borne disease systems.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
- Mathematical analysis to prioritise strategies for malaria elimination.Journal of theoretical biology · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe serial interval is a fundamentally important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology that has numerous applications to inferring patterns of transmission from case data. Many of these applications are apropos of efforts to eliminate falciparum malaria from locations throughout the world, yet the serial interval for this disease is poorly understood quantitatively.
methodsTo obtain a quantitative estimate of the serial interval for falciparum malaria, the sum of the components of the falciparum malaria transmission cycle was taken based on a combination of mathematical models and empirical data. During this process, a number of factors were identified that account for substantial variability in the serial interval across different contexts.
resultsTreatment with anti-malarial drugs roughly halves the serial interval due to an abbreviated period of human infectiousness, seasonality results in different serial intervals at different points in the transmission season, and variability in within-host dynamics results in many individuals whose serial intervals do not follow average behaviour. Furthermore, 24.5 % of secondary cases presenting clinically did so prior to the primary cases being identified through active detection of infection.
conclusionsThese results have important implications for epidemiological applications that rely on quantitative estimates of the serial interval of falciparum malaria and other diseases characterized by prolonged infections and complex ecological drivers.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.