Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27659721›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2016

Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to predict influenza in primary care patients.

Richard K Zimmerman, G K Balasubramani, Mary Patricia Nowalk, Heather Eng, Leonard Urbanski, Michael L Jackson, Lisa A Jackson, Huong Q McLean, Edward A Belongia, Arnold S Monto and 5 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.0field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 80 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.

Richard K ZimmermanUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. zimmer@pitt.edu.
G K BalasubramaniUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Mary Patricia NowalkUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Heather EngUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Leonard UrbanskiUPMC Urgent Care - Natrona Heights, Natrona Heights, PA, USA.
Michael L JacksonGroup Health Cooperative, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lisa A JacksonGroup Health Cooperative, Seattle, WA, USA.
Huong Q McLeanMarshfield Clinic Research Foundation, Marshfield, WI, USA.
Edward A BelongiaMarshfield Clinic Research Foundation, Marshfield, WI, USA.
Arnold S MontoUniversity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Ryan E MaloshUniversity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Manjusha GaglaniBaylor Scott & White Health, Texas A&M Health Science Center College of Medicine, Temple, TX, USA.
Lydia ClipperBaylor Scott & White Health, Texas A&M Health Science Center College of Medicine, Temple, TX, USA.
Brendan FlanneryCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Stephen R WisniewskiUniversity of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
University of Pittsburgh · USGroup Health Cooperative · USMarshfield Clinic · USUniversity of Michigan–Ann Arbor · USBaylor Scott & White Health · USCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USTexas A&M Health Science Center · US

Funding

UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTE: BPCAUL1RR024153 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI REIS, STEVEN E · 2006 to 2011
$73.9M
University of Pittsburgh Clinical and Translational Science InstituteUL1TR000005 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI REIS, STEVEN E · 2012 to 2015
$50.8M
Core_plus_Option_A_B_Proposal for Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness ResearchU01IP000474 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI MONTO, ARNOLD S · 2011 to 2015
$6.2M
Core_plus Option_A_C_Influenza Surveillance and Vaccine Effectiveness in a LargeU01IP000467 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI ZIMMERMAN, RICHARD K · 2011 to 2015
$5.9M
Core_plus Option_B_C_Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Wisconsin PopulationU01IP000471 · IP · MARSHFIELD CLINIC RESEARCH FOUNDATION · PI BELONGIA, EDWARD · 2011 to 2015
$5.6M
Core_Prospective population-based estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness aU01IP000466 · IP · KAISER FOUNDATION HEALTH PLAN OF WASHINGTON · PI JACKSON, MICHAEL L · 2011 to 2015
$4.1M
Core_RT-PCR based Case-Control: Apt Measure of Influenza Vaccine EffectivenessU01IP000473 · IP · SCOTT AND WHITE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL · PI GAGLANI, MANJUSHA · 2011 to 2015
$4.0M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000005NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP000466NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP000467NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP000471NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP000473NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP000474NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001034NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024153
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe use of neuraminidase-inhibiting anti-viral medication to treat influenza is relatively infrequent. Rapid, cost-effective methods for diagnosing influenza are needed to enable appropriate prescribing. Multi-viral respiratory panels using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays to diagnose influenza are accurate but expensive and more time-consuming than low sensitivity rapid influenza tests. Influenza clinical decision algorithms are both rapid and inexpensive, but most are based on regression analyses that do not account for higher order interactions. This study used classification and regression trees (CART) modeling to estimate probabilities of influenza.

methodsEligible enrollees ≥ 5 years old (n = 4,173) who presented at ambulatory centers for treatment of acute respiratory illness (≤7 days) with cough or fever in 2011-2012, provided nasal and pharyngeal swabs for PCR testing for influenza, information on demographics, symptoms, personal characteristics and self-reported influenza vaccination status.

resultsAntiviral medication was prescribed for just 15 % of those with PCR-confirmed influenza. An algorithm that included fever, cough, and fatigue had sensitivity of 84 %, specificity of 48 %, positive predictive value (PPV) of 23 % and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94 % for the development sample.

conclusionsThe CART algorithm has good sensitivity and high NPV, but low PPV for identifying influenza among outpatients ≥5 years. Thus, it is good at identifying a group who do not need testing or antivirals and had fair to good predictive performance for influenza. Further testing of the algorithm in other influenza seasons would help to optimize decisions for lab testing or treatment.

Indexed as

Clinical decision toolsInfluenzaRecursive partitioning

Identifiers

PMID27659721
PMCPMC5034457
OpenAlexW2521432082

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.