Optimizing therapy in inflammatory arthritis: prediction of relapse after tapering or stopping treatment for rheumatoid arthritis patients achieving clinical and radiological remission.

This study aims to assess clinical, lab/immunological or imaging (joint ultrasonography) markers able to predict disease relapse in RA patients in sustained remission when tapering or stopping their treatment. One hundred fifty-seven RA patients in clinical remission (DAS-28 <2.6 for >6 months), receiving treatment with sDMARDs and bDMARD therapy, were randomly allocated into any of five groups: Group 1: continue full dose DMARDs and taper biologic therapy by 50 % (31 patients); Group 2: taper both DMARDs and biologic therapy dose by 50 % (32 patients); Group 3: taper DMARDs by 50 % and stop biologic therapy (31 patients); Group 4: stop both DMARDs and biologic therapy (31 patients); Group 5: continue medications without change (31 patients). Forty joints were assessed ultrasonographically (DAS-28 joints + ankles + metatarsophalangeal joints) and prospectively monitored for 12 months. The primary endpoint was sustained remission for 12 months. Patients were considered as having a relapse when the DAS-28 score was >3.2 and anti-rheumatic treatment was escalated. The frequency of relapse was 41.9 % in Group 1, 59.3 % in Group 2, 67.7 % in Group 3, 77.4 % in Group 4 and 6.5 % in Group 5. Relapse rates were significantly higher in patients whose ultrasound scores raised within 3 months of stopping their medications (P < 0.001 for both GS and PD scores). Cox regression identified ACPA positivity (at baseline) and progression of functional disability (at 2 months) as predictors for relapse. Tapering therapy is feasible in RA patients. Tailored dynamic approach is advised. Joint ultrasonographic assessment, ACPA positivity and worsening functional disability predicted relapse within a short term after discontinuation of the treatment. RA patients whose DAS-28 score was <2 were more likely to remain in remission.