ArticlePloS one
Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.
Article in PloS one. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review.BMJ global health · 2021Pooled it
- Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Impact of airline network on the global importation risk of mpox, 2022.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Role of urban planning characteristics in forming pandemic resilient cities - Case study of Covid-19 impacts on European cities within England, Germany and Italy.Cities (London, England) · 2021Article
- Measuring changes in travel behavior pattern due to COVID-19 in a developing country: A case study of Pakistan.Transport policy · 2021Article
- Impact of domestic travel restrictions on transmission of COVID-19 infection using public transportation network approach.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Travel restrictions and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: an effective distance approach to estimate impact.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2020Article
- Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Review
- Temporal Characteristics of the Chinese Aviation Network and their Effects on the Spread of Infectious Diseases.Scientific reports · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAn epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL
findingsThe hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa.
conclusionsThe travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.