ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2016
Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 127 citations in OpenAlex.
- Limited plasticity in thermally tolerant ectotherm populations: evidence for a trade-off.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Pooled it
- Effects of Extreme Climatic Events on Evolutionary Processes.Global change biology · 2025Review
- An Established Plant Invader May Still Benefit From Increasing Genetic Diversity-Insights From Artificial Populations in a Common Garden Experiment.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Impacts of limits to adaptation on population and community persistence in a changing environment.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Review
- Emergence of phenotypic plasticity through epigenetic mechanisms.Evolution letters · 2024Article
- Environmental effects on genetic variance are likely to constrain adaptation in novel environments.Evolution letters · 2024Article
- How density dependence, genetic erosion and the extinction vortex impact evolutionary rescue.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Patterns of Genetic And Epigenetic Diversity Across A Range Expansion in The White-Footed Mouse (Integrative organismal biology (Oxford, England) · 2023Article
- Evolution of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity under rapid and slow temperature fluctuations.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Phenotypic plasticity as a facilitator of microbial evolution.Environmental epigenetics · 2022Review
- Avoiding extinction under nonlinear environmental change: models of evolutionary rescue with plasticity.Biology letters · 2021Article
- Human Responses and Adaptation in a Changing Climate: A Framework Integrating Biological, Psychological, and Behavioural Aspects.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Review
- How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?eLife · 2021Article
- Plasticity is a locally adapted trait with consequences for ecological dynamics in novel environments.Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Adaptive and nonadaptive plasticity in changing environments: Implications for sexual species with different life history strategies.Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Evolutionary mismatch along salinity gradients in a Neotropical water strider.Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Phenotypic plasticity under rapid global changes: The intrinsic force for future seagrasses survival.Evolutionary applications · 2021Review
- Effects of intrinsic environmental predictability on intra-individual and intra-population variability of plant reproductive traits and eco-evolutionary consequences.Annals of botany · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype-environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.