Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27650770›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2016

Comparison of count-based multimorbidity measures in predicting emergency admission and functional decline in older community-dwelling adults: a prospective cohort study.

Emma Wallace, Ronald McDowell, Kathleen Bennett, Tom Fahey, Susan M Smith

Open access · goldAbstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
3.1field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 49 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Emma WallaceHRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI), Dublin, Ireland.
Ronald McDowellHRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI), Dublin, Ireland.
Kathleen BennettPopulation Health Sciences Division, Royal College of Surgeons of Ireland (RCSI), Dublin, Ireland.
Tom FaheyHRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI), Dublin, Ireland.
Susan M SmithHRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI), Dublin, Ireland.
Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland · IE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesMultimorbidity, defined as the presence of 2 or more chronic medical conditions in an individual, is associated with poorer health outcomes. Several multimorbidity measures exist, and the challenge is to decide which to use preferentially in predicting health outcomes. The study objective was to compare the performance of 5 count-based multimorbidity measures in predicting emergency hospital admission and functional decline in older community-dwelling adults attending primary care.

setting15 general practices (GPs) in Ireland.

participantsn=862, ≥70 years, community-dwellers followed-up for 2 years (2010-2012). Exposure at baseline: Five multimorbidity measures (disease counts, selected conditions counts, Charlson comorbidity index, RxRisk-V, medication counts) calculated using GP medical record and linked national pharmacy claims data. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: (1) Emergency admission and ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) admission (GP medical record) and (2) functional decline (postal questionnaire). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Descriptive statistics and measure discrimination (c-statistic, 95% CIs), adjusted for confounders.

resultsMedian age was 77 years and 53% were women. Prevalent rates ranged from 37% to 91% depending on which measure was used to define multimorbidity. All measures demonstrated poor discrimination for the outcome of emergency admission (c-statistic range: 0.62, 0.65), ACS admission (c-statistic range: 0.63, 0.68) and functional decline (c-statistic range: 0.55, 0.61). Medication-based measures were equivalent to diagnosis-based measures.

conclusionsThe choice of measure may have a significant impact on prevalent rates. Five multimorbidity measures demonstrated poor discrimination in predicting emergency admission and functional decline, with medication-based measures equivalent to diagnosis-based measures. Consideration of multimorbidity in isolation is insufficient for predicting these outcomes in community settings.

Indexed as

Activities of Daily LivingHealth StatusMultimorbidityPatient Outcome AssessmentAgedCohort StudiesEmergenciesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGeriatric AssessmentHospitalizationHumansIrelandMaleProspective StudiesRisk Factorscomorbidityfrail elderlyhospitalisation

Identifiers

PMID27650770
PMCPMC5051451
OpenAlexW2521058126

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.