ArticleTranslational psychiatry2016
Prediction of transition from ultra-high risk to first-episode psychosis using a probabilistic model combining history, clinical assessment and fatty-acid biomarkers.
Article in Translational psychiatry, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 59 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prognostic models predicting transition to psychotic disorder using blood-based biomarkers: a systematic review and critical appraisal.Translational psychiatry · 2023Pooled it
- EEG-Based Measures in At-Risk Mental State and Early Stages of Schizophrenia: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2021Pooled it
- Effects of Omega 3 Fatty Acids on Main Dimensions of Psychopathology.International journal of molecular sciences · 2020Pooled it
- What Causes the Onset of Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk? A Meta-analysis of Risk and Protective Factors.Schizophrenia bulletin · 2020Pooled it
- Illness Phase as a Key Assessment and Intervention Window for Psychosis.Biological psychiatry global open science · 2023Review
- Analysis of polyunsaturated fatty acids in antipsychotic-free individuals with at-risk mental state and patients with first-episode schizophrenia.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2023Article
- Primary Psychosis: Risk and Protective Factors and Early Detection of the Onset.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- MicroRNAs in the Onset of Schizophrenia.Cells · 2021Review
- A randomized Phase II trial evaluating efficacy, safety, and tolerability of oral BI 409306 in attenuated psychosis syndrome: Design and rationale.Early intervention in psychiatry · 2021Article
- Complement pathway changes at age 12 are associated with psychotic experiences at age 18 in a longitudinal population-based study: evidence for a role of stress.Molecular psychiatry · 2021Article
- Progression from being at-risk to psychosis: next steps.NPJ schizophrenia · 2020Review
- Assessment of Appetite-Regulating Hormones Provides Further Evidence of Altered Adipoinsular Axis in Early Psychosis.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2020Article
- Integrated Lipidomics and Proteomics Point to Early Blood-Based Changes in Childhood Preceding Later Development of Psychotic Experiences: Evidence From the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.Biological psychiatry · 2019Article
- Neurocognitive profiles in the prodrome to psychosis in NAPLS-1.Schizophrenia research · 2019Article
- Focus on fatty acids in the neurometabolic pathophysiology of psychiatric disorders.Journal of inherited metabolic disease · 2018Review
- Beyond the "at risk mental state" concept: transitioning to transdiagnostic psychiatry.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2018Article
- Cognitive and Functional Assessment of Psychosis Stratification Study (CoFAPSS): Rationale, Design, and Characteristics.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2018Article
- Development and Validation of a Clinically Based Risk Calculator for the Transdiagnostic Prediction of Psychosis.JAMA psychiatry · 2017Article
- Erythrocyte glutathione levels as long-term predictor of transition to psychosis.Translational psychiatry · 2017Article
- Personalized medicine for schizophrenia.NPJ schizophrenia · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Current criteria identifying patients with ultra-high risk of psychosis (UHR) have low specificity, and less than one-third of UHR cases experience transition to psychosis within 3 years of initial assessment. We explored whether a Bayesian probabilistic multimodal model, combining baseline historical and clinical risk factors with biomarkers (oxidative stress, cell membrane fatty acids, resting quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG)), could improve this specificity. We analyzed data of a UHR cohort (n=40) with a 1-year transition rate of 28%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated for predictor variables with statistically significant receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), which excluded oxidative stress markers and qEEG parameters as significant predictors of transition. We clustered significant variables into historical (history of drug use), clinical (Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale positive, negative and general scores and Global Assessment of Function) and biomarker (total omega-3, nervonic acid) groups, and calculated the post-test probability of transition for each group and for group combinations using the odds ratio form of Bayes' rule. Combination of the three variable groups vastly improved the specificity of prediction (area under ROC=0.919, sensitivity=72.73%, specificity=96.43%). In this sample, our model identified over 70% of UHR patients who transitioned within 1 year, compared with 28% identified by standard UHR criteria. The model classified 77% of cases as very high or low risk (P>0.9, <0.1) based on history and clinical assessment, suggesting that a staged approach could be most efficient, reserving fatty-acid markers for 23% of cases remaining at intermediate probability following bedside interview.
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