Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27633953›Full record

ArticleGlobal change biology2017

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

Dominik Thom, Werner Rammer, Rupert Seidl

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Global change biology, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed
8.8field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 156 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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  4. Article
  5. Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Accelerating Mountain Forest Dynamics in the Alps.Ecosystems (New York, N.Y.) · 2022
    Article
  8. Article
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  15. Article
  16. Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2018
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Dominik ThomDepartment of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria.
Werner RammerDepartment of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria.
Rupert SeidlDepartment of Forest- and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria.
BOKU University · AT

Funding

Austrian Science Fund FWF P 25503
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeEcosystemForestsAustriaBiodiversityClimateTreesclimate change adaptationforest dynamicsforest ecosystem managementKalkalpen National Parknatural disturbancenovel ecosystemsspecies turnoversuccession

Identifiers

PMID27633953
PMCPMC5159623
OpenAlexW2519337995

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.