← GLP-1 receptor agonists × cardiovascular events

TrialThe New England journal of medicine2016

Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

Steven P Marso et al.PubMed ↗Publisher ↗

The primary results report of NCT01720446. Its numbers are set against the trial’s posted results below.

What the trial testedrandomised · 3,297 people · 2016

Randomised comparison

Reduced cardiovascular events

Doesn’t vote: same as the registry's posted result, which counts instead

−39%−62% to −1%

Bigger than 8 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.38–0.99

Range includes no effect

No clear effect on cardiovascular events

Doesn’t vote: same as the registry's posted result, which counts instead

−26%−49% to +8%

7 in 100 instead of 9

Bigger than 6 in 10 for cardiovascular events

As reported

HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.51–1.08

Not counted

Raised kidney outcomes

1.8×1.1× to 2.8×

Bigger than 8 in 10 on the map

As reported

HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.11–2.78

Against the trial’s posted results

Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 0.74 (0.58–0.95)Posted, primary outcome HR 0.74 (0.58–0.95), p <0.0001Time From Randomisation to First Occurrence of a MACE, Defined as Cardiovascular Death, Non-fatal Myocardial Infarction, or Non-fatal Stroke
Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 0.74 (0.51–1.08)Posted HR 0.74 (0.51–1.08), p = 0.1194Time From Randomisation to Each Individual Component of the Expanded Composite Cardiovascular Outcome
Same as the trial’s posted resultThis paper HR 0.61 (0.38–0.99)Posted HR 0.61 (0.38–0.99), p = 0.0438Time From Randomisation to Each Individual Component of the Expanded Composite Cardiovascular Outcome

Three numbers in the abstract

the abstract, start to end

… those receiving placebo (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.51 to 1.08; P=0.12); nonfatal stroke occurred in 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.99; P=0.04).

… were significantly higher (hazard ratio, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.78; P=0.02).

← favours treatmentfavours comparator →

could be chance

Cardiovascular events

HR 0.740.51–1.08

Cardiovascular events

HR 0.610.38–0.99

Kidney outcomes

HR 1.761.11–2.78

GLP-1 receptor agonistsCardiovascular eventsKidney outcomes

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2,907 papers cite itlatest 60 shown

2016

…

2026

this paperpooled ittrialcites it

16 trials

NCT01720446phase 33,297 enrolled2013this paper is its primary report NCT04122716phase 4215 enrolled2016 NCT05478707phase 247 enrolled2023 NCT05870462phase 4100 enrolled2023 NCT06606821phase 4124 enrolled2024 NCT06894784phase 336 enrolled2025

Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

What the trial testedrandomised · 3,297 people · 2016

Reduced cardiovascular events

No clear effect on cardiovascular events

Raised kidney outcomes

Against the trial’s posted results

Three numbers in the abstract

Where each one falls

Where it lands on the map

2,907 papers cite itlatest 60 shown

16 trials