ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2016
Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2).
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Antigenic and Molecular Genetic Evolution of Influenza Viruses in Kazakhstan from 2017 to 2025.Biology · 2026Article
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus as of early 2026 to inform vaccine-strain selection.Virus evolution · 2026Article
- How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Disruption of seasonal influenza circulation and evolution during the 2009 H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics in Southeastern Asia.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Integrating dynamical modeling and phylogeographic inference to characterize global influenza circulation.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Epidemiologic and Virologic Characteristics of Influenza in Lao PDR, 2016-2023.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Article
- Review
- Modeling analysis revealed the distinct global transmission patterns of influenza A viruses and their influencing factors.Integrative zoology · 2021Article
- Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Influenza in temperate and tropical Asia: a review of epidemiology and vaccinology.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2020Review
- Role of hematological parameters in the diagnosis of influenza virus infection in patients with respiratory tract infection symptoms.Journal of clinical laboratory analysis · 2020Article
- Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.PLoS computational biology · 2020Article
- Article
- Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2018Article
- How single mutations affect viral escape from broad and narrow antibodies to H1 influenza hemagglutinin.Nature communications · 2018Article
- Pneumonia in the tropics: Report from the Task Force on tropical diseases by the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine.Journal of critical care · 2017Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a host metapopulation representing the temperate north, tropics and temperate south. Although seasonality and air traffic are frequently used to explain global migratory patterns of influenza, we find that other factors may have a comparable or greater impact. Notably, a region's basic reproductive number (R0) strongly affects the antigenic evolution of its viral population and the probability that its strains will spread and fix globally: a 17-28% higher R0 in one region can explain the observed patterns. Seasonality, in contrast, increases the probability that a tropical (less seasonal) population will export evolutionarily successful strains but alone does not predict that these strains will be antigenically advanced. The relative sizes of different host populations, their birth and death rates, and the region in which H3N2 first appears affect influenza's phylogeography in different but relatively minor ways. These results suggest general principles that dictate the spatial dynamics of antigenically evolving pathogens and offer predictions for how changes in human ecology might affect influenza evolution.
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