ArticleInternational journal of preventive medicine2016
Estimating the Transitional Probabilities of Smoking Stages with Cross-sectional Data and 10-Year Projection for Smoking Behavior in Iranian Adolescents.
Article in International journal of preventive medicine, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The First Cigarette Smoking Experience and Future Smoking Behaviors Among Adolescents with Different Parental Risk: a Longitudinal Analysis in an Urban Iranian Population.International journal of behavioral medicine · 2020Article
- Estimating of Net Transition Probabilities in Triple Stages of Cigarette Consumption in Iranian Men.Tanaffos · 2018Article
- Causal Effect of Self-esteem on Cigarette Smoking Stages in Adolescents: Coarsened Exact Matching in a Longitudinal Study.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2016Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundCigarette smoking is one of the most important health-related risk factors in terms of morbidity and mortality. In this study, we introduced a new method for deriving the transitional probabilities of smoking stages from a cross-sectional study and simulated a long-term smoking behavior for adolescents.
methodsIn this study in 2010, a total of 4853 high school students were randomly selected and were completed a self-administered questionnaire about cigarette smoking. We used smoothed age- and sex-specific prevalence of smoking stages in a probabilistic discrete event system for estimating of transitional probabilities. A nonhomogenous discrete time Markov chain analysis was used to model the progression of the smoking in 10 years ahead in the same population. The mean age of the students was 15.69 ± 0.73 years (range: 14-19).
resultsThe smoothed prevalence proportion of current smoking varies between 3.58 and 26.14%. The age-adjusted odds of initiation in boys is 8.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.9-10.0) times of the odds of initiation of smoking in girls. Our study predicted that the prevalence proportion of current smokers increased from 7.55% in 2010 to 20.31% (95% CI: 19.44-21.37) for 2019.
conclusionsThe present study showed a moderately but concerning prevalence of current smoking in Iranian adolescents and introduced a novel method for estimation of transitional probabilities from a cross-sectional study. The increasing trend of cigarette use among adolescents indicated the necessity of paying more attention to this group.
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