Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27621441›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2016

Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies.

Daniel G Streicker, Jamie C Winternitz, Dara A Satterfield, Rene Edgar Condori-Condori, Alice Broos, Carlos Tello, Sergio Recuenco, Andrés Velasco-Villa, Sonia Altizer, William Valderrama

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 78 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
78citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.3field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

78 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 141 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Equine Rabies in Southern Colombia, 2024-2025.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2026
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  6. Superspreading and the evolution of virulence.PLoS computational biology · 2025
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18 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 6 institutions in 5 countries.

Daniel G StreickerInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Scotland; Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, Scotland; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602; daniel.streicker@glasgow.ac.uk.
Jamie C WinternitzOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602; Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 65 Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology, 24306 Ploen, Germany;
Dara A SatterfieldOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602;
Rene Edgar Condori-CondoriPoxvirus and Rabies Branch, Division of High Consequence Pathogen and Pathology, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329;
Alice BroosMedical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, Scotland;
Carlos TelloAssociation for the Conservation and Development of Natural Resources, Lima-41, Peru;
Sergio RecuencoInstituto Nacional de Salud, Ministry of Health of Peru, Lima-11, Peru;
Andrés Velasco-VillaPoxvirus and Rabies Branch, Division of High Consequence Pathogen and Pathology, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329;
Sonia AltizerOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602;
William ValderramaAssociation for the Conservation and Development of Natural Resources, Lima-41, Peru; National Service of Agrarian Health, SENASA-Peru, Lima-12, Peru.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention · USUniversity of Georgia · USCzech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology · CZMedical Research Council · GBMinistry of Health · PEMRC University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_12014/8Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Anticipating how epidemics will spread across landscapes requires understanding host dispersal events that are notoriously difficult to measure. Here, we contrast host and virus genetic signatures to resolve the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying geographic expansions of vampire bat rabies virus (VBRV) in Peru. Phylogenetic analysis revealed recent viral spread between populations that, according to extreme geographic structure in maternally inherited host mitochondrial DNA, appeared completely isolated. In contrast, greater population connectivity in biparentally inherited nuclear microsatellites explained the historical limits of invasions, suggesting that dispersing male bats spread VBRV between genetically isolated female populations. Host nuclear DNA further indicated unanticipated gene flow through the Andes mountains connecting the VBRV-free Pacific coast to the VBRV-endemic Amazon rainforest. By combining Bayesian phylogeography with landscape resistance models, we projected invasion routes through northern Peru that were validated by real-time livestock rabies mortality data. The first outbreaks of VBRV on the Pacific coast of South America could occur by June 2020, which would have serious implications for agriculture, wildlife conservation, and human health. Our results show that combining host and pathogen genetic data can identify sex biases in pathogen spatial spread, which may be a widespread but underappreciated phenomenon, and demonstrate that genetic forecasting can aid preparedness for impending viral invasions.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionHost-Pathogen InteractionsAnimalsBayes TheoremChiropteraGenome, ViralGeographyInheritance PatternsMaleMicrosatellite RepeatsPeruRabiesRabies virusSeasonsDesmodusforecastingsex biasspatial dynamicszoonotic disease

Identifiers

PMID27621441
PMCPMC5047211
OpenAlexW2519341154

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.