Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27609782›Full record

ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2016

Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India: a mathematical modelling study.

Kate M Mitchell, Holly J Prudden, Reynold Washington, Shajy Isac, Subramanian P Rajaram, Anna M Foss, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Marie-Claude Boily, Peter Vickerman

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

Kate M MitchellSocial and Mathematical Epidemiology Group (SaME), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Holly J PruddenSocial and Mathematical Epidemiology Group (SaME), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Reynold WashingtonKarnataka Health Promotion Trust, Bangalore, India.
Shajy IsacKarnataka Health Promotion Trust, Bangalore, India.
Subramanian P RajaramCHARME-India Project, Bangalore, India.
Anna M FossSocial and Mathematical Epidemiology Group (SaME), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Fern Terris-PrestholtSocial and Mathematical Epidemiology Group (SaME), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Marie-Claude BoilyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Peter VickermanSocial and Mathematical Epidemiology Group (SaME), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBImperial College London · GBKarnataka Health Promotion Trust · INUniversity of Manitoba · CA

Funding

SDMC: HPTN 084 Pregnancy SupplementUM1AI068617 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Elizabeth Renata Brown, Deborah J Donnell · 2011 to 2026
$204.9M
NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068617
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionIn Bangalore, new HIV infections of female sex workers and men who have sex with men continue to occur, despite high condom use. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has high anti-HIV efficacy for men who have sex with men. PrEP demonstration projects are underway amongst Indian female sex workers. We estimated the impact and efficiency of prioritizing PrEP to female sex workers and/or men who have sex with men in Bangalore.

methodsA mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment for female sex workers, clients, men who have sex with men and low-risk groups was parameterized and fitted to Bangalore data. The proportion of transmission attributable (population attributable fraction) to commercial sex and sex between men was calculated. PrEP impact (infections averted, life-years gained) and efficiency (life-years gained/infections averted per 100 person-years on PrEP) were estimated for different levels of PrEP adherence, coverage and prioritization strategies (female sex workers, high-risk men who have sex with men, both female sex workers and high-risk men who have sex with men, or female sex workers with lower condom use), under current conditions and in a scenario with lower baseline condom use amongst key populations.

resultsPopulation attributable fractions for commercial sex and sex between men have declined over time, and they are predicted to account for 19% of all new infections between 2016 and 2025. PrEP could prevent a substantial proportion of infections amongst female sex workers and men who have sex with men in this setting (23%/27% over 5/10 years, with 60% coverage and 50% adherence), which could avert 2.9%/4.3% of infections over 5/10 years in the whole Bangalore population. Impact and efficiency in the whole population was greater if female sex workers were prioritized. Efficiency increased, but impact decreased, if only female sex workers with lower condom use were given PrEP. Greater impact and efficiency was predicted for the scenario with lower condom use.

conclusionsPrEP could be beneficial for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, and give some benefits in the general population, especially in similar settings with lower condom use levels.

Indexed as

AdultFemaleHIV InfectionsHomosexuality, MaleHumansIndiaMaleModels, TheoreticalPre-Exposure ProphylaxisSex Workersfocussed interventionhigh-risk groupkey populationoral PrEPpreventionprioritizingtargeting

Identifiers

PMID27609782
PMCPMC5016494
OpenAlexW2510551007

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.