ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2016
A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 70 citations in OpenAlex.
- Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Pooled it
- Respiratory pandemic risk in the Anthropocene: A One Health framework and GISRS+ agenda.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Review
- Mpox seroprevalence among sex workers and men who have sex with men preceding sustained urban outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Pathogen host jump risk is not predicted by spillover rate, but rather by novelty.PLoS biology · 2026Article
- Modelling a potential zoonotic spillover event of H5N1 influenza.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal spread of Lassa virus and a new rodent host in the Mano River Union area, West Africa.Emerging microbes & infections · 2024Article
- Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West AfricanJournal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- An mRNA-LNP-based Lassa virus vaccine induces protective immunity in mice.Journal of virology · 2024Article
- Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- When might host heterogeneity drive the evolution of asymptomatic, pandemic coronaviruses?Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- Lassa Virus Genetics.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2023Article
- Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system.EClinicalMedicine · 2022Review
- Understanding the origin of COVID-19 requires to change the paradigm on zoonotic emergence from the spillover to the circulation model.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2021Review
- Spillover, hybridization, and persistence in schistosome transmission dynamics at the human-animal interface.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- From Protein to Pandemic: The Transdisciplinary Approach Needed to Prevent Spillover and the Next Pandemic.Viruses · 2021Review
- Habitat loss and the risk of disease outbreak.Journal of environmental economics and management · 2021Article
- Host and parasite traits predict cross-species parasite acquisition by introduced mammals.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- One Health, "Disease X" & the challenge of "Unknown" Unknowns.The Indian journal of medical research · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: 'spillover', i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and 'stuttering transmission', i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.