Observational studyAmerican journal of epidemiology2016
Theoretical Basis of the Test-Negative Study Design for Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness.
Observational study in American journal of epidemiology, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 189 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
189 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 339 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Pooled it
- Brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness for the 2021-2022 season in Europe: results from the DRIVE multi-stakeholder study platform.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against Omicron infection and severe events: a systematic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design studies.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2020Pooled it
- Comparison of Respiratory Specimen Collection Methods for Detection of Influenza Virus Infection by Reverse Transcription-PCR: a Literature Review.Journal of clinical microbiology · 2019Pooled it
- The impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2019Pooled it
- Estimating Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness With the Test-Negative Design Using Alternative Control Groups: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2018Pooled it
- The impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC medicine · 2017Pooled it
- Validating and leveraging non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection as a negative control outcome in a phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial with extended observational follow-up.American journal of epidemiology · 2026Trial
- The validity of test-negative design for assessment of typhoid conjugate vaccine protection: comparison of estimates by different study designs using data from a cluster-randomised controlled trial.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Trial
- Typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in Malawi: evaluation of a test-negative design using randomised, controlled clinical trial data.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Trial
- A comparison of the test-negative and the matched case-control study designs for estimation of EV71 vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints from a randomized controlled trial.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Trial
- Gam-COVID-Vac, EpiVacCorona, and CoviVac effectiveness against lung injury during Delta and Omicron variant surges in St. Petersburg, Russia: a test-negative case-control study.Respiratory research · 2022Trial
- Evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness among older adults in Jiaxing, China, 2022-2025: A test negative design-based study.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2026Article
- Validity of influenza vaccine effectiveness calculations using a test-negative design in Thailand.American journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Article
- Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness across epidemiologic designs: test-negative case-control versus retrospective cohort analyses in a nationwide study.International journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Improving Assessment of Vaccine Effectiveness by Coupling Test-negative Design Studies with Survival Models.Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) · 2026Article
- Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness Against Influenza-Associated Hospitalization in Children and the Effects of Repeated Vaccination.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
129 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Influenza viruses undergo frequent antigenic changes. As a result, the viruses circulating change within and between seasons, and the composition of the influenza vaccine is updated annually. Thus, estimation of the vaccine's effectiveness is not constant across seasons. In order to provide annual estimates of the influenza vaccine's effectiveness, health departments have increasingly adopted the "test-negative design," using enhanced data from routine surveillance systems. In this design, patients presenting to participating general practitioners with influenza-like illness are swabbed for laboratory testing; those testing positive for influenza virus are defined as cases, and those testing negative form the comparison group. Data on patients' vaccination histories and confounder profiles are also collected. Vaccine effectiveness is estimated from the odds ratio comparing the odds of testing positive for influenza among vaccinated patients and unvaccinated patients, adjusting for confounders. The test-negative design is purported to reduce bias associated with confounding by health-care-seeking behavior and misclassification of cases. In this paper, we use directed acyclic graphs to characterize potential biases in studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness using the test-negative design. We show how studies using this design can avoid or minimize bias and where bias may be introduced with particular study design variations.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.