Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27583987›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2016

Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.

Susannah McLean, Martine Hoogendoorn, Rudolf T Hoogenveen, Talitha L Feenstra, Sarah Wild, Colin R Simpson, Maureen Rutten-van Mölken, Aziz Sheikh

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Observational
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
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  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Economic Analysis of New Single-Inhaler Triple Therapies in Patients with COPD in the UK.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2025
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Observational
  17. Review
  18. The role of vaccination in COPD: influenza, SARS-CoV-2, pneumococcus, pertussis, RSV and varicella zoster virus.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2023
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Susannah McLeanAllergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
Martine HoogendoornInstitute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Rudolf T HoogenveenNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Talitha L FeenstraNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Sarah WildAllergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
Colin R SimpsonAllergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
Maureen Rutten-van MölkenInstitute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Aziz SheikhAllergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.

Funding

Cancer Research UKMedical Research Council G9815508Medical Research Council MC_PC_13040Medical Research Council MR/K007017/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011-2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77-1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85-2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96-2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98-2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18-2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85-3.08) billion in 2030. In Scotland, costs increased from £159 million (128-268) in 2011 to £207 (165-274) million in 2030. The deaths in England were estimated to increase from 99,200 (92,500-128,500) in 2011, to 129,400 (126,400-133,400) by 2030. In Scotland, in 2011 there were 9,700 (9,000-12,300) deaths and 13,900 (13,400-14,500) deaths in 2030. The number of people with COPD will increase substantially over the coming years in England and Scotland, particularly in females. Services need to adapt to this increasing demand.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolEnglandFemaleHealth Care CostsHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID27583987
PMCPMC5008118

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.