ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2016
Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics-the effect of common population structure is small.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Network structure induced bias in estimates of intrinsic generation times.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Structural network characteristics affect epidemic severity and prediction in social contact networks.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- The impact of household structure on disease-induced herd immunity.Journal of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- The source of individual heterogeneity shapes infectious disease outbreaks.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Epidemic models: why and how to use them.Anaesthesia, critical care & pain medicine · 2022Article
- Principles of mathematical epidemiology and compartmental modelling application to COVID-19.Anaesthesia, critical care & pain medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- A study on the efficiency of the estimation models of COVID-19.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Memory is key in capturing COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Range of reproduction number estimates for COVID-19 spread.Biochemical and biophysical research communications · 2021Article
- Population density and basic reproductive number of COVID-19 across United States counties.PloS one · 2021Article
- Modeling the role of clusters and diffusion in the evolution of COVID-19 infections during lock-down.Computational mechanics · 2021Article
- [Mathematical epidemiology and modeling of the Covid-19 pandemic: issues and diversity].Revue francophone des laboratoires : RFL · 2020Article
- Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.Science (New York, N.Y.) · 2020Article
- Inferring generation-interval distributions from contact-tracing data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
- Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions.Nature communications · 2020Article
- Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.