SynthesisBMC infectious diseases2016
Risk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO.
Synthesis in BMC infectious diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019Pooled it
- Assessing the Methods, Tools, and Statistical Approaches in Google Trends Research: Systematic Review.Journal of medical Internet research · 2018Pooled it
- Clinical determinants of the severity of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS): a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC public health · 2016Pooled it
- Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Understanding pandemics through molecular gas dynamics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Article
- Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha.Nature communications · 2024Article
- The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on patients hospitalized due to acute coronary syndrome.Postepy w kardiologii interwencyjnej = Advances in interventional cardiology · 2023Review
- Airline strategies during the pandemic: What worked?Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice · 2023Article
- Evaluating the Impact of the Pandemic Crisis on the Aviation Industry.Transportation research record · 2023Article
- COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Summary of Recent Research, Policy Consideration and Future Research Directions.Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives · 2022Article
- The effects of air transport mobility and global connectivity on viral transmission: Lessons learned from Covid-19 and its variants.Transport policy · 2022Article
- Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2001-2018.International journal of health policy and management · 2022Review
- An infodemiological framework for tracking the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using integrated public data.Pattern recognition letters · 2022Article
- Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of risk communication for maps depicting the hazard of COVID-19.Transactions in GIS : TG · 2022Article
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on O-D flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia.Journal of air transport management · 2022Article
- STARTUPS: Founding airlines during COVID-19 - A hopeless endeavor or an ample opportunity for a better aviation system?Transport policy · 2022Article
- The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases.Journal of air transport management · 2021Article
- COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane.Journal of air transport management · 2021Article
- Risk Assessment of Importation and Local Transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea: Statistical Modeling Approach.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe continuing circulation of MERS in the Middle East makes the international dissemination of the disease a permanent threat. To inform risk assessment, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of MERS global dissemination and looked for factors explaining the heterogeneity observed in transmission events following importation.
methodsWe reviewed imported MERS cases worldwide up to July 2015. We modelled importations in time based on air travel combined with incidence in Middle East. We used the detailed history of MERS case management after importation (time to hospitalization and isolation, number of hospitals visited,…) in logistic regression to identify risk factors for secondary transmission. We assessed changes in time to hospitalization and isolation in relation to collective and public health attention to the epidemic, measured by three indicators (Google Trends, ProMED-mail, Disease Outbreak News).
resultsModelled importation events were found to reproduce both the temporal and geographical structure of those observed - the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed monthly time series was large (r = 0.78, p < 10(-4)). The risk of secondary transmission following importation increased with the time to case isolation or death (OR = 1.7 p = 0.04) and more precisely with the duration of hospitalization (OR = 1.7, p = 0.02). The average daily number of secondary cases was 0.02 [0.0,0.12] in the community and 0.20 [0.03,9.0] in the hospital. Time from hospitalisation to isolation decreased in periods of high public health attention (2.33 ± 0.34 vs. 6.44 ± 0.97 days during baseline attention).
conclusionsCountries at risk of importation should focus their resources on strict infection control measures for the management of potential cases in healthcare settings and on prompt MERS cases identification. Individual and collective awareness are key to substantially improve such preparedness.
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