ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2017
Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 109 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
109 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 369 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of the effects of temperature and precipitation on pollen concentrations and season timing, and implications for human health.International journal of biometeorology · 2021Pooled it
- Common Ragweed Allergy Under Global Change Linking Invasion-Driven Aeroallergen Exposure with Molecular Sensitization and Allergic Airway Disease.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Allergic Respiratory Diseases in the Climate Change Context: Aerobiological Tools and Projections as Preventive Actions for Pollen-Induced Allergies.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Amb a 1-Specific IgE in Heart Failure: A Translational Framework for Seasonal Risk, Endotyping, and Patient-Centered Management.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Association of Short-Term Pollen Exposure With Lung Function in COPD Patients.Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (Miami, Fla.) · 2026Article
- Temporal Patterns of Allergen Sensitisation in the General Population: The LEAD Study.Clinical and translational allergy · 2026Article
- Climate change-associated heat extremes and immune dysregulation: emerging links with autoimmunity, allergy, and infectious diseases.Seminars in immunopathology · 2026Review
- Evaluation of the effectiveness of outdoor field-based teaching in training allergy specialists to identify allergenic plants.BMC medical education · 2026Article
- Effect of initiation treatment timing on efficacy ofThe World Allergy Organization journal · 2026Article
- Airborne Ragweed (Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Climate Change, Air Quality, and Pollen Allergies-State of the Art and Recommendations for Research and Public Health.Allergy · 2026Review
- Climate Change and the Impact On Interstitial Lung Diseases.Pulmonary therapy · 2026Review
- Possible implications of the variability of the most allergenic plant pollen seasons in Poland.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Experts' perspectives on allergic reactions to emerging food sources, pollen and insects.Allergologie select · 2026Article
- Pollen-induced allergic rhinitis in the central region of Inner Mongolia, China: prevalence, risk factors, and regional characteristics.Frontiers in allergy · 2026Article
- Molecular profiling of IgE sensitization to dermatophagoides allergen components: clinical correlates in a high-exposure region.Frontiers in allergy · 2026Article
- Political ideology and scientific communication shape human perceptions of pollen seasons.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Characteristics of Allergy-related Emergency Medical Calls: A Retrospective Dispatch-based Study.Zdravstveno varstvo · 2025Article
- Influence of meteorological conditions and climate on pollen season of the early-flowering woody taxa in Poland, Central Europe.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Aerobiology and Environmental Zonation in Gypsum Caves: A Comparative Study of Culturing and NGS Approaches.Microbial ecology · 2025Article
49 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
11 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundGlobally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.
objectivesWe produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (
methodsA process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.
resultsOur primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.
conclusionsOur quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.