Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27550968›Full record

ArticleCirculation2016

Trajectories of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation Over a 25-Year Follow-Up: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities).

Faye L Norby, Elsayed Z Soliman, Lin Y Chen, Lindsay G S Bengtson, Laura R Loehr, Sunil K Agarwal, Alvaro Alonso

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Circulation, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
4.5field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.

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  15. Evolution of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in a Worker Cohort: A Cluster Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

Faye L NorbyFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.). flopez@umn.edu.
Elsayed Z SolimanFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
Lin Y ChenFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
Lindsay G S BengtsonFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
Laura R LoehrFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
Sunil K AgarwalFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
Alvaro AlonsoFrom Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
University of Minnesota · USUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · USEmory University · USIcahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai · USOptum (United States) · US

Funding

American Heart Association-American Stroke Association 16EIA26410001NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005GNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100005INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100006CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100008INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100009INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100010CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100011INHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201100012C
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTiming and trajectories of cardiovascular risk factor (CVRF) development in relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been described previously. We assessed trajectories of CVRF and incidence of AF over 25 years in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities).

methodsWe assessed trajectories of CVRF in 2456 individuals with incident AF and 6414 matched control subjects. Subsequently, we determined the association of CVRF trajectories with the incidence of AF among 10 559 AF-free individuals (mean age, 67 years; 52% men; 20% blacks). Risk factors were measured during 5 examinations between 1987 and 2013. Cardiovascular events, including incident AF, were ascertained continuously. We modeled the prevalence of risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes in the period before and after AF diagnosis and the corresponding index date for control subjects using generalized estimating equations. Trajectories in risk factors were identified with latent mixture modeling. The risk of incident AF by trajectory group was examined with Cox models.

resultsThe prevalence of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure increased steeply during the time close to AF diagnosis. All CVRFs were elevated in AF cases compared with controls >15 years before diagnosis. We identified distinct trajectories for all the assessed CVRFs. In general, individuals with trajectories denoting long-term exposure to CVRFs had increased AF risk even after adjustment for single measurements of the CVRFs.

conclusionsAF patients have increased prevalence of CVRF many years before disease diagnosis. This analysis identified diverse trajectories in the prevalence of these risk factors, highlighting their different roles in AF pathogenesis.

Indexed as

Residence CharacteristicsAgedAtherosclerosisAtrial FibrillationCardiovascular DiseasesCohort StudiesFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk Factorsatrial fibrillationcardiovascular diseasesepidemiology

Identifiers

PMID27550968
PMCPMC4999250
OpenAlexW2511950722

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.