ArticleEpidemiology and infection2016
Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The tale of two assumptions: incorporating healthcare-seeking behaviour in epidemic forecasting.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A Net Benefit Approach for the Optimal Allocation of a COVID-19 Vaccine.PharmacoEconomics · 2021Article
- Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions.PLoS computational biology · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
The Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such as the size of the Alberta antiviral stockpile and can contribute to other pandemic influenza planning activities and scenario analyses.
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