ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2016
Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Self-healing in leprosy: A systematic review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Latent leprosy infection identified by dual RLEP and anti-PGL-I positivity: Implications for new control strategies.PloS one · 2021Article
- Leprosy in Children.Current infectious disease reports · 2017Review
- Hanseniasis in the municipality of Western Amazon (Acre, Brazil): are we far from the goal of the World Health Organization?: Hansen and Western Amazon.The Brazilian journal of infectious diseases : an official publication of the Brazilian Society of Infectious DiseasesArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
Abstract
Hansen's disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44-45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.