ArticlePloS one2016
Modeling Mosquito-Borne Disease Spread in U.S. Urbanized Areas: The Case of Dengue in Miami.
Article in PloS one, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Systematic Review: Land Cover, Meteorological, and Socioeconomic Determinants of Aedes Mosquito Habitat for Risk Mapping.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2017Pooled it
- Evaluating chikungunya outbreak size and emergency vaccination strategies in Miami: an exploratory modeling study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Investigation of Biological Factors Contributing to Individual Variation in Viral Titer after Oral Infection ofViruses · 2022Article
- Using machine learning to understand microgeographic determinants of the Zika vector, Aedes aegypti.PloS one · 2022Article
- Game-Theoretical Model of the Voluntary Use of Insect Repellents to Prevent Zika Fever.Dynamic games and applications · 2022Article
- Age-structured vectorial capacity reveals timing, not magnitude of within-mosquito dynamics is critical for arbovirus fitness assessment.Parasites & vectors · 2020Article
- Patterns of spatial genetic structures in Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) populations in China.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change.Epidemics · 2019Article
- Assessing the potential impact of vector-borne disease transmission following heavy rainfall events: a mathematical framework.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Travel distance and human movement predict paths of emergence and spatial spread of chikungunya in Thailand.Epidemiology and infection · 2018Article
- First outbreak of Zika virus in the continental United States: a modelling analysis.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2017Article
- Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States.Nature · 2017Article
- Fine-scale variation in microclimate across an urban landscape shapes variation in mosquito population dynamics and the potential of Aedes albopictus to transmit arboviral disease.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- An outbreak vector-host epidemic model with spatial structure: the 2015-2016 Zika outbreak in Rio De Janeiro.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2017Article
- Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2017Article
- Zika Virus: What Have We Learnt Since the Start of the Recent Epidemic?Frontiers in microbiology · 2017Review
- Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2016Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Expansion of mosquito-borne pathogens into more temperate regions of the world necessitates tools such as mathematical models for understanding the factors that contribute to the introduction and emergence of a disease in populations naïve to the disease. Often, these models are not developed and analyzed until after a pathogen is detected in a population. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model parameterized with publicly available U.S. Census data for studying the potential for disease spread in Urbanized Areas of the United States. To illustrate the utility of the model, we specifically study the potential for introductions of dengue to lead to autochthonous transmission and outbreaks in a population representative of the Miami Urbanized Area, where introductions of dengue have occurred frequently in recent years. We describe seasonal fluctuations in mosquito populations by fitting a population model to trap data provided by the Miami-Dade Mosquito Control Division. We show that the timing and location of introduced cases could play an important role in determining both the probability that local transmission occurs as well as the total number of cases throughout the entire region following introduction. We show that at low rates of clinical presentation, small outbreaks of dengue could go completely undetected during a season, which may confound mitigation efforts that rely upon detection. We discuss the sensitivity of the model to several critical parameter values that are currently poorly characterized and motivate the collection of additional data to strengthen the predictive power of this and similar models. Finally, we emphasize the utility of the general structure of this model in studying mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and Zika virus in other regions.
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