Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27473681›Full record

SynthesisAlzheimer's research & therapy2016

Recent global trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia, and survival with dementia.

Martin Prince, Gemma-Claire Ali, Maëlenn Guerchet, A Matthew Prina, Emiliano Albanese, Yu-Tzu Wu

Registry-linked trialAbstract readSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Alzheimer's research & therapy, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05109169 (Multimodal METformin and FINGER Lifestyle Intervention to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability in Older Adults at Risk for Dementia), which is not on this map. Cited by 405 papers, 12 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
405citing papers in PubMed, 12 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05109169 phase2active not recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2023, after this paper: background citation

Multimodal METformin and FINGER Lifestyle Intervention to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability in Older Adults at Risk for Dementia: a Phase IIb Multi-national Randomised, Controlled Trial

TypeinterventionalSponsorImperial College LondonRan2023 to 2028Enrolled600ConditionsCognitive Decline, Cognitive Impairment, DementiaArmsFINGER 2.0 multidomain lifestyle-based intervention, Self-guided multidomain lifestyle intervention
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

405 citing papers in PubMed, 12 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  7. The efficacy and safety of lecanemab 10 mg/kg biweekly compared to a placebo in patients with Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2024
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  19. Interaction of diet and physical activity on dementia risk: the Rotterdam study.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2026
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345 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Martin PrinceThe Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care, Health Service & Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, PO 36, David Goldberg Centre, De Crespigny Park, London, SE5 8AF, UK. martin.prince@kcl.ac.uk.
Gemma-Claire AliThe Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care, Health Service & Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, PO 36, David Goldberg Centre, De Crespigny Park, London, SE5 8AF, UK.
Maëlenn GuerchetThe Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care, Health Service & Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, PO 36, David Goldberg Centre, De Crespigny Park, London, SE5 8AF, UK.
A Matthew PrinaThe Global Observatory for Ageing and Dementia Care, Health Service & Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, PO 36, David Goldberg Centre, De Crespigny Park, London, SE5 8AF, UK.
Emiliano AlbaneseDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
Yu-Tzu WuCambridge Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/K021907/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCurrent projections of the scale of the coming dementia epidemic assume that the age- and sex-specific prevalence of dementia will not vary over time, and that population ageing alone (increasing the number of older people at risk) drives the projected increases. The basis for this assumption is doubtful, and secular trends (that is, gradual decreases or increases in prevalence over long-term periods) are perfectly plausible.

methodsWe carried out a systematic review of studies of trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality for people with dementia, conducted since 1980.

resultsWe identified nine studies that had tracked dementia prevalence, eight that had tracked dementia incidence, and four that had tracked mortality among people with dementia. There was some moderately consistent evidence to suggest that the incidence of dementia may be declining in high-income countries. Evidence on trends in the prevalence of dementia were inconsistent across studies and did not suggest any clear overall effect. Declining incidence may be balanced by longer survival with dementia, although mortality trends have been little studied. There is some evidence to suggest increasing prevalence in East Asia, consistent with worsening cardiovascular risk factor profiles, although secular changes in diagnostic criteria may also have contributed.

conclusionsWe found no evidence to suggest that the current assumption of constant age-specific prevalence of dementia over time is ill-founded. However, there remains some uncertainty as to the future scale of the dementia epidemic. Population ageing seems destined to play the greatest role, and prudent policymakers should plan future service provision based upon current prevalence projections. Additional priorities should include investing in brain health promotion and dementia prevention programs, and monitoring the future course of the epidemic to chart the effectiveness of these measures.

Indexed as

DementiaFemaleGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMeta-Analysis as TopicPrevalenceRetrospective StudiesDementiaEpidemiologyGlobal healthMeta-analysisProjectionSystematic reviewTrendsWorldwide

Identifiers

PMID27473681
PMCPMC4967299

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.