Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27470029›Full record

Observational studyThe lancet. HIV2016

Heterogeneity of the HIV epidemic in agrarian, trading, and fishing communities in Rakai, Uganda: an observational epidemiological study.

Larry W Chang, Mary K Grabowski, Robert Ssekubugu, Fred Nalugoda, Godfrey Kigozi, Betty Nantume, Justin Lessler, Sean M Moore, Thomas C Quinn, Steven J Reynolds and 3 more

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in The lancet. HIV, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 141 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
141citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

141 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  13. Patterns of HIV-1 Viral Load Suppression and Drug Resistance During the Dolutegravir Transition: A Population-based Longitudinal Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
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81 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Larry W ChangDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; Social and Behavioral Interventions Program, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. Electronic address: lchang8@jhmi.edu.
Mary K GrabowskiRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Robert SsekubuguRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
Fred NalugodaRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
Godfrey KigoziRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
Betty NantumeRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
Justin LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Sean M MooreDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Thomas C QuinnDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Steven J ReynoldsDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Ronald H GrayRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
David SerwaddaRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Maria J WawerRakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.

Funding

Vaccine Response and Immunotherapeutics SWGP30AI094189 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Bryan Lau · 2012 to 2026
$67.0M
International Center for Excellence in Research (ICER) in Uganda: Impact of ARVsZIAAI001040 · NIAID · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES · PI REYNOLDS, STEVEN · 2009 to 2025
$23.5M
International Studies of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)ZIAAI000361 · NIAID · NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES · PI REDD, ANDREW · 2009 to 2025
$15.8M
ARV effects on HIV epidemiology &behaviors Rakai UgandaR01HD050180 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WAWER, MARIA J · 2005 to 2009
$7.8M
Methods for Reducing Spatial Uncertainty and Bias in Disease SurveillanceR01AI102939 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2013 to 2017
$4.6M
Enhanced Provision of Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention, Rakai, UgandaU01AI100031 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2012 to 2014
$3.2M
CHWs, mHealth, and Combination HIV Prevention in a Hotspot: A Randomized TrialR01MH107275 · NIMH · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2015 to 2019
$2.7M
HIV Incidence, Transmission Dynamics and Combination HIV Prevention: Rakai UgandaR01AI110324 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRAY, RONALD H · 2014 to 2016
$2.4M
The Problem With Male Sexual/Repro Health:Qualitative/Quantitative Study, UgandaR01HD070769 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WAWER, MARIA J · 2011 to 2013
$1.4M
Peer health workers: Impact on retention, care and secondary prevention of PLHIVK23MH086338 · NIMH · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI CHANG, LARRY WILLIAM · 2010 to 2014
$914k
NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102939NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI110324NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI100031NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD050180NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD070769NIMH NIH HHS K23 MH086338NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH107275
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundUnderstanding the extent to which HIV burden differs across communities and the drivers of local disparities is crucial for an effective and targeted HIV response. We assessed community-level variations in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and treatment and prevention service uptake in Rakai, Uganda.

methodsThe Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) is an open, population-based cohort of people aged 15-49 years in 40 communities. Participants are HIV tested and interviewed to obtain sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information. RCCS data from Aug 10, 2011, to May 30, 2013, were used to classify communities as agrarian (n=27), trading (n=9), or lakeside fishing sites (n=4). We mapped HIV prevalence with Bayesian methods, and characterised variability across and within community classifications. We also assessed differences in HIV risk factors and uptake of antiretroviral therapy and male circumcision between community types.

findings17 119 individuals were included, 9215 (54%) of whom were female. 9931 participants resided in agrarian, 3318 in trading, and 3870 in fishing communities. Median HIV prevalence was higher in fishing communities (42%, range 38-43) than in trading (17%, 11-21) and agrarian communities (14%, 9-26). Antiretroviral therapy use was significantly lower in both men and women in fishing communities than in trading (age-adjusted prevalence risk ratio in men 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·97; women 0·53, 0·42-0·66) and agrarian communities (men 0·55, 0·42-0·72; women 0·65, 0·54-0·79), as was circumcision coverage among men (vs trading 0·48, 0·42-0·55; vs agrarian 0·64, 0·56-0·72). Self-reported risk behaviours were significantly higher in men than in women and in fishing communities than in other community types.

interpretationSubstantial heterogeneity in HIV prevalence, risk factors, and service uptake in Rakai, Uganda, emphasises the need for local surveillance and the design of targeted HIV responses. High HIV burden, risk behaviours, and low use of combination HIV prevention in fishing communities make these populations a priority for intervention.

fundingNational Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, and the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases Division of Intramural Research, National Institutes of Health; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and the Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research.

Indexed as

EpidemicsFarmersResidence CharacteristicsAcquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeAdolescentAdultAnti-HIV AgentsAntiretroviral Therapy, Highly ActiveBayes TheoremCircumcision, MaleCohort StudiesCommerceCost of IllnessFemaleFisheriesHIV InfectionsAnti-HIV Agents

Identifiers

PMID27470029
PMCPMC4973864

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.