Evidence map›Paper›PMID 27467055›Full record

ArticleBritish journal of cancer2016

Menopausal hormone therapy and breast cancer: what is the true size of the increased risk?

Michael E Jones, Minouk J Schoemaker, Lauren Wright, Emily McFadden, James Griffin, Dawn Thomas, Jane Hemming, Karen Wright, Alan Ashworth, Anthony J Swerdlow

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in British journal of cancer, 2016. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  19. Best practice for HRT: unpicking the evidence.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2016
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Michael E JonesDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Minouk J SchoemakerDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Lauren WrightDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Emily McFaddenDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
James GriffinDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Dawn ThomasDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Jane HemmingDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Karen WrightThe National Cancer Registration Service-Eastern Office, Public Health England, Cambridge CB21 5XA, UK.
Alan AshworthDivision of Breast Cancer Research, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.
Anthony J SwerdlowDivision of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London SW7 3RP, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMenopausal hormone therapy (MHT) increases breast cancer risk; however, most cohort studies omit MHT use after enrolment and many infer menopausal age.

methodsWe used information from serial questionnaires from the UK Generations Study cohort to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for breast cancer among post-menopausal women with known menopausal age, and examined biases induced when not updating data on MHT use and including women with inferred menopausal age.

resultsAmong women recruited in 2003-2009, at 6 years of follow-up, 58 148 had reached menopause and 96% had completed a follow-up questionnaire. Among 39 183 women with known menopausal age, 775 developed breast cancer, and the HR in relation to current oestrogen plus progestogen MHT use (based on 52 current oestrogen plus progestogen MHT users in breast cancer cases) relative to those with no previous MHT use was 2.74 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.05-3.65) for a median duration of 5.4 years of current use, reaching 3.27 (95% CI: 1.53-6.99) at 15+ years of use. The excess HR was underestimated by 53% if oestrogen plus progestogen MHT use was not updated after recruitment, 13% if women with uncertain menopausal age were included, and 59% if both applied. The HR for oestrogen-only MHT was not increased (HR=1.00; 95% CI: 0.66-1.54).

conclusionsLack of updating MHT status through follow-up and inclusion of women with inferred menopausal age is likely to result in substantial underestimation of the excess relative risks for oestrogen plus progestogen MHT use in studies with long follow-up, limited updating of exposures, and changing or short durations of use.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsCohort StudiesEstrogen Replacement TherapyFemaleHumansMiddle Aged

Identifiers

PMID27467055
PMCPMC4997554

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.